Impact evaluation of Slovak active labour market policy programmes
Prepared by Soňa Dulíková, Lukáš Lafférs and Miroslav Štefánik (miroslav.stefanik@savba.sk)
Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences
This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract no. APVV-17-0329.
The Commuting allowance
This is an automated report providing evidence on Commuting allowance, one of the active labour market policy (ALMP) programmes, implemented in Slovakia between during 2017.
The Commuting allowance is provided based on the § 53 of the Act on Employment Services Col. 2004/5.
if(qualitative_data_condition) {
knitr::knit_exit()
}1. The description of the programme
Based on the Labour Market Policy Database (LMP) administrated by DG Employment of the European Commission, the Commuting allowance is classified as an “Employment incentives” type of ALMP programme, with the programme specific code 41_SK20.
Commuting allowance aims: Employment maintenance incentives
Beneficiaries are registered job seekers.
The Eligible are citizens who were registered jobseekers for at least 3 months before starting to work or performance
Implementation: The contribution for commuting to work shall be provided a monthly for travel to work to cover a part of an employee s travel costs for commuting from his/her place of permanent residence or place of temporary residence to the place of employment specified in his/her employment contract and back if the employee was a jobseeker registered in the register of jobseekers for at least three months who was removed from the register of jobseekers for the reason in section 36(1)(a) and if he/she applies for the contribution in writing no later than one month after starting employment. The contribution can be provided again after two years from the end of provision. The contribution shall be provided to an employee for at most six months from the start of employment .The contribution shall be provided to cover travel costs using public transport up to a maximum of EUR 135 per month depending on the distance of the place of employment from the place of permanent or temporary residence. The contribution shall not be provided to an employee who commutes from his/her place of permanent or temporary residence to the place of employment specified in his/her employment contract within one municipality.
1.1 Participants and expenditures
#Preparing of participants and expenditures tables
partSK <- subset(part, geo == 'SK' & year == format(as.Date(params$ep_start),"%Y") & age == 'TOTAL' & sex == 'T' & stk_flow == 'ENT' )
names(programesSK)[1] <- 'lmp_type'
partSK <- merge(partSK, programesSK, by = 'lmp_type', all = TRUE)
partSK <- subset(partSK, substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '2' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '4' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '5' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '6' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '7')
partSK_datapie <- subset(partSK, lmp_type == lmp_code | lmp_type == '2' | lmp_type == '4' | lmp_type == '5' | lmp_type == '6' | lmp_type == '7')
partSK_datapie$value <- ifelse(is.na(partSK_datapie$value), sum(partSK[substr(partSK$lmp_type, 1, 6) == substr(lmp_code, 1, 6) , 'value'], na.rm = TRUE), partSK_datapie$value)
expSK <- subset(exp, year == format(as.Date(params$ep_start),"%Y"))
expSK <- merge(expSK, programesSK, by = 'lmp_type', all = TRUE)
expSK <- subset(expSK, substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '2' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '4' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '5' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '6' | substr(Classification, 1, 1) == '7')
expSK_datapie <- subset(expSK, lmp_type == lmp_code | lmp_type == '2' | lmp_type == '4' | lmp_type == '5' | lmp_type == '6' | lmp_type == '7')
expSK_datapie$value <- ifelse(is.na(expSK_datapie$value), sum(expSK[substr(expSK$lmp_type, 1, 6) == substr(lmp_code, 1, 6) , 'value'], na.rm = TRUE), expSK_datapie$value)
#Share of expenditures and participants at programm
partSK_per <- partSK_datapie %>% select(lmp_type, value) %>%
subset(lmp_type != subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1]) %>%
mutate(per = paste(round(100 * value / sum(value),2),'%'))
expSK_per <- expSK_datapie %>% select(lmp_type, value) %>%
subset(lmp_type != subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1]) %>%
mutate(per = paste(round(100 * value / sum(value),2),'%'))
program_part <- data.frame(lmp_type = c('total', as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])),
participants = c(sum(partSK_per$value), subset(partSK_datapie, partSK_datapie$almp == params$measure)$value[1]),
per = c('100 %', paste(round(subset(partSK_datapie, partSK_datapie$almp == params$measure)$value[1] / sum(partSK_per$value) * 100,2),'%'))
)
program_exp <- data.frame(lmp_type = c('total', as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])),
expenditures = c(sum(expSK_per$value), subset(expSK_datapie, expSK_datapie$almp == params$measure)$value[1]),
per = c('100 %', paste(round(subset(expSK_datapie, expSK_datapie$almp == params$measure)$value[1] / sum(expSK_per$value) * 100,2),'%'))
)
type_share_par <- partSK_per$per[partSK_per$lmp_type == as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$Classification[1])]
prog_share_par <- program_part$per[program_part$lmp_type == as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])]
prog_numb_par <- program_part$participants[program_part$lmp_type == as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])]
type_share_exp <- expSK_per$per[expSK_per$lmp_type == subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$Classification[1]]
prog_share_exp <- program_exp$per[program_exp$lmp_type == as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])]
prog_numb_exp <- program_exp$expenditures[program_exp$lmp_type == as.character(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$lmp_type.x[1])]The left pie chart Participants displays the share of participants in ALMP programmes grouped by ALMP types of the LMP classification. Shares are based on LMP Database stock figures reported for the calendar year 2017.
The right pie chart Expenditure display the share of expenditure using the same LMP typology as the Participants pie chart. Comparing the share on the total pie of participants to the share on the total pie of expenditures provides an assessment of unit costs of the programme relative to the average. If the percentage of participants is higher than on total spending, then the programme is less expensive than the average ALMP programme (and vice versa).
Graph 1: Resources flowing to Commuting allowance during 2017
#Preparing data for Pie Chart
#PARTICIPANTS
piechart_P <- select(partSK_datapie, lmp_type, value)
piechart_P$lmp_type <- ifelse(piechart_P$lmp_type == '2' | piechart_P$lmp_type == '4' | piechart_P$lmp_type == '5' | piechart_P$lmp_type == '6' | piechart_P$lmp_type == '7',
qualitative$class[match(piechart_P$lmp_type, qualitative$Classification)],
paste(qualitative$class[match(piechart_P$lmp_type, qualitative$lmp_type.x)],
qualitative$Labour.market.services[match(piechart_P$lmp_type, qualitative$lmp_type.x)],
sep =': ' ))
piechart_P <- filter(piechart_P, !duplicated(piechart_P$lmp_type))
piechart_P$lmp_type <- ifelse(piechart_P$lmp_type == 'Training: [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training','Training: [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training Repas',piechart_P$lmp_type)
piechart_P <- piechart_P[order(piechart_P$lmp_type),]
piechart_P$focus <- ifelse(
piechart_P$lmp_type == paste(
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$class[1],
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$Labour.market.services[1],
sep =': '),
0.05,
0)
#EXPENDITURES
piechart_E <- select(expSK_datapie, lmp_type, value)
piechart_E$lmp_type <- ifelse(piechart_E$lmp_type == '2' | piechart_E$lmp_type == '4' | piechart_E$lmp_type == '5' | piechart_E$lmp_type == '6' | piechart_E$lmp_type == '7',
qualitative$class[match(piechart_E$lmp_type, qualitative$Classification)],
paste(qualitative$class[match(piechart_E$lmp_type, qualitative$lmp_type.x)],
qualitative$Labour.market.services[match(piechart_E$lmp_type, qualitative$lmp_type.x)],
sep =': ' ))
piechart_E <- filter(piechart_E, !duplicated(piechart_E$lmp_type))
piechart_E$lmp_type <- ifelse(piechart_E$lmp_type == 'Training: [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training','Training: [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training Repas',piechart_E$lmp_type)
piechart_E <- piechart_E[order(piechart_E$lmp_type),]
piechart_E$focus <- ifelse(
piechart_E$lmp_type == paste(
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$class[1],
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$Labour.market.services[1],
sep =': '),
0.05,
0)
## PIE CHART
#PARTICIPANTS
piechart_P$lmp_type <- gsub("(.{25,}?)\\s", "\\1\n", piechart_P$lmp_type)
ev_measure <- gsub("(.{25,}?)\\s", "\\1\n",
paste(subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$class[1],
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$Labour.market.services[1],
sep =': '))
ev_type <- gsub("(.{25,}?)\\s", "\\1\n",
subset(qualitative, qualitative$almp == params$measure)$class[1])
piechart_P$value <- ifelse(piechart_P$lmp_type == ev_type, piechart_P$value - piechart_P[piechart_P$lmp_type == ev_measure,"value"], piechart_P$value)
piechart_P <- piechart_P %>%
mutate(per = paste0(round(100 * value / sum(value),2), "%", by = ""),
total = sum(value),
end_angle = 2*pi*cumsum(value)/total,
start_angle = lag(end_angle, default = 0),
mid_angle = 0.5*(start_angle + end_angle))
rpie <- 1
rlabel <- 0.6 * rpie
plot_piechart_P <- ggplot(piechart_P) +
theme_no_axes() +
theme_void() +
coord_fixed()+
geom_arc_bar(aes(x0 = 0, y0 = 0, r0 = 0, r = 1, amount = value,
fill = lmp_type, explode = focus),
data = piechart_P, stat = 'pie',color='white')+
ggtitle('Participants') +
geom_text(aes(x = rlabel*sin(mid_angle), y = rlabel*cos(mid_angle), label = ifelse(lmp_type == ev_type | lmp_type == ev_measure, per,"")),
size = 4, position=position_jitter(width=0,height=0.3))+
theme(plot.title = element_text(color="black", size=18, face="bold.italic"),
legend.title = element_text(size=15, face="bold"),
legend.text = element_text(size=12),
legend.key.height=unit(1.1, "cm")) +
guides(fill=guide_legend(title="Classification of LMP\n and measure")) +
scale_fill_manual(values=c(ifelse(piechart_P$value != 0 & piechart_P$lmp_type == ev_measure,
"steelblue3",
ifelse(piechart_P$lmp_type == ev_type,
"steelblue1",
gray.colors(6, start = 0.8)))))
#EXPENDITURES
piechart_E$lmp_type <- gsub("(.{25,}?)\\s", "\\1\n", piechart_E$lmp_type)
piechart_E$value <- ifelse(piechart_E$lmp_type == ev_type, piechart_E$value - piechart_E[piechart_E$lmp_type == ev_measure,"value"], piechart_E$value)
piechart_E <- piechart_E %>%
mutate(per = paste0(round(100 * value / sum(value),2), "%", by = ""),
total = sum(value),
end_angle = 2*pi*cumsum(value)/total,
start_angle = lag(end_angle, default = 0),
mid_angle = 0.5*(start_angle + end_angle))
rpie <- 1
rlabel <- 0.6 * rpie
plot_piechart_E <- ggplot(piechart_E) +
theme_no_axes() +
theme_void() +
coord_fixed()+
geom_arc_bar(aes(x0 = 0, y0 = 0, r0 = 0, r = 1, amount = value,
fill = lmp_type, explode = focus),
data = piechart_E, stat = 'pie',color='white')+
ggtitle('Expenditure') +
geom_text(aes(x = rlabel*sin(mid_angle), y = rlabel*cos(mid_angle), label = ifelse(lmp_type == ev_type | lmp_type == ev_measure, per,"")),
size = 4, position=position_jitter(width=0,height=0.3))+
theme(plot.title = element_text(color="black", size=18, face="bold.italic"),
legend.title = element_text(size=15, face="bold"),
legend.text = element_text(size=12),
legend.key.height=unit(1.1, "cm")) +
guides(fill=guide_legend(title="Classification of LMP\n and measure")) +
scale_fill_manual(values=c(ifelse(piechart_E$value != 0 & piechart_E$lmp_type == ev_measure,
"steelblue3",
ifelse(piechart_E$lmp_type == ev_type,
"steelblue1",
gray.colors(6, start = 0.8)))))
Based on the LMP database, 5 441 individuals participated in the Commuting allowance during 2017. This accounted for the 2.82 % percent of the total number of participants in all Slovak ALMP programmes (LMP types 2-7), while the share of the programme on the total expenditure was 0.57 %. The total roofing LMP type Employment incentives presents 60.68 % percent of the total Slovak ALMP (type 2-7) expenditure and 61.68 % percent of the total ALMP participants.
1.2 The Commuting allowance in the context of ALMPs in Slovakia
Using administrative data, we first provide a picture of the importance of the Commuting allowance in the context of Slovak ALMP. The following flowchart displays flow of job seekers registered into the database of unemployment during . Flows are based on the movement of these individuals during the two years following their registration; this period is divided into six months sub-periods (0/6/12/18/24). For each of these sub-periods, we observe the flows of registered jobseekers to employment, or their de-registration for another reason.
Job seekers can also move to one of the ALMP programmes. The lines highlighted in red represent the flow of jobseekers participating in measure P053, Commuting allowance.
Graph 2: The Commuting allowance in the structure of the flows of jobseekers registered during 2017
The next table shows full names of programmes shown in the graph above.
Table 1: Explanatory table for Graph 2
Sankey_description <- select(qualitative, almp, Labour.market.services, Labour.market.services_SK)
Sankey_description[32,1] <- 'P054'
Sankey_description<- rbind(Sankey_description, Sankey_description[32,])
Sankey_description[nrow(Sankey_description),1] <- 'P54O'
Sankey_description[28,1] <- 'P54D'
Sankey_tabel1 <- data.frame(Measures = c(setdiff(nastroj_kod, c("another reason", "employed"))))
Sankey_tabel1$'Name of programme' <- Sankey_description$Labour.market.services[match(Sankey_tabel1$Measures, Sankey_description$almp)]
Sankey_tabel1 %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE)%>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE)%>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) | Measures | Name of programme |
|---|---|
| P54R | [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training Repas |
| P054 | Projects and programmes |
| P051 | Support for graduate work experience |
| P54O | [Component] Projects and programmes - Self-employment |
| P060 | Reimbursement of operating costs of sheltered workshops and workplaces |
| P54K | [Component] Projects and programmes - Projects - Education and training |
| P052 | Work in minor services for municipalities or self-governing regions |
| P52A | Voluntary work |
| P049 | Self-employment grant |
| P50J | Support for the development of local and regional employment |
| P053 | Commuting allowance |
## Preparing of df
# we observe only young people under XX (age) which inflow in XXXX (entry year)
df_r <- subset(df, age <= age_group_max)
df_r <- subset(df_r, format(as.Date(df_r$entry),"%Y")== format(as.Date(params$ep_start),"%Y"))
#df_r <- df_r %>% mutate_all(na_if,"") #if cells are empty -> change it to NAs
df_r <- subset(df_r, healthy < 3)
# DOVOD VYRADENIA
dovod_vyradenia = c('V01','V02','V03','V1','V12','V15') #zamestnali sa
# Opatrenie P032 vyhodiť (ak sa budú meniť aj iné opatrenia ako napr. 54R a 54Rp tak tu sa to opraví (%in% c()))
delete <- setdiff(c('P032','P54P','P54D'),params$measure)
Salmps <- subset(almps, !nastroj %in% delete)
## Spojenie DF a ALMPS
df_almps <- merge(Salmps, df_r, by = 'klient_id')
## Vyfiltruj iba tie klient_id. pri ktorých nástroj je params$measure
partic_measure <- df_almps[df_almps$nastroj == params$measure, 'klient_id']
df_almps <- filter(df_almps, klient_id %in% partic_measure) #tu su tí, ktorí boli na aj na params$measure ale aj na iných opatreniach
# Podmienka prieniku času pri databáze nezamestnaných a v zúčastnili sa evaluated measure
df_almps_measure <- subset(df_almps, entry <= entrya & exita <= (exit +7) & nastroj == params$measure) # tu su tí, ktorí išli v skúmanom čase do opatrenia params$measure
##### toto je moja základňa môj prvý stĺpec
##### Podmienka prieniku času pri databáze nezamestnaných a iných programoch ako evaluated measue ale zároveň sú to tí, ktorí už niekedy na evaluated measure už boli
df_almps_other <- subset(df_almps, entry <= entrya & exita <= (exit +7) & nastroj != params$measure)
# upravíme si dáta ktoré budeme používať pri grafe
df_almps_measure <- select(df_almps_measure, klient_id, entry, exit, entrya, exita, nastroj, dovod_vyradenia_kod)
df_almps_other <- select(df_almps_other, klient_id, entry, exit, entrya, exita, nastroj, dovod_vyradenia_kod)
#smojím iba tých ktorí boli aj v evaluated measure aj v iných opatreniach, all.x = TRUE lebo chceme aj tých ktorý boli iba na evaluated measure (nemuseli sa zúčastniť aj iných programov)
flow <- merge(df_almps_measure, df_almps_other, by = 'klient_id', all.x = TRUE)
#dni od začatia opatrenia entrya.x po začatie iného opatrenia entrya.y alebo po zamestnanie/odchod z iného dôvodu exit.x
flow$days <- ifelse(is.na(flow$nastroj.y),
as.numeric(difftime(flow$exit.x, flow$entrya.x, units = 'days')),
as.numeric(difftime(flow$entrya.y, flow$entrya.x, units = 'days')))
#ak je dovod vyradenia NA ale zúčastnili sa na opatrení
flow$dovod_vyradenia_kod.y <- ifelse(is.na(flow$dovod_vyradenia_kod.y) & !is.na(flow$nastroj.y), 'V01', flow$dovod_vyradenia_kod.y)
#vyfiltruj tých ktorý boli aj na evaluated measure aj na inom opatrení alebo sa zamestnali a days nie je záporné
#podmienka -> entrya do ďalšieho projektu musí byť väčšie ako entrya do evaluated measure
#flow$days nemôže byť záporné
flow <- filter(flow, days >= 0)
#nastroj -> ak dovod vyradenia sa rovna nejakému prvku z vektoru dovodov vyradenia tak -> employed inak another reason
flow <- flow %>%
mutate(nastroj.y = case_when(is.na(flow$nastroj.y) & flow$dovod_vyradenia_kod.x %in% dovod_vyradenia ~ 'employed',
is.na(flow$nastroj.y) & !flow$dovod_vyradenia_kod.x %in% dovod_vyradenia ~ 'another reason',
!is.na(flow$nastroj.y) ~ flow$nastroj.y)
)
#dataframe, ktorý budem používať pri tvorbe grafu
Sankey_measure <- flow %>% select(nastroj.x, nastroj.y, days) %>%
mutate(month = ceiling(days/30.417))
Sankey_measure <- Sankey_measure %>%mutate(
time = case_when(
Sankey_measure$month %in% seq(0,6,1) ~ 6,
Sankey_measure$month %in% seq(7,12,1) ~ 12,
Sankey_measure$month %in% seq(13,18,1) ~ 18,
Sankey_measure$month %in% seq(19,100,1) ~ 24,
)
)
Sankey_measure$sources <- ifelse(Sankey_measure$time == 6 | Sankey_measure$time == 12 |
Sankey_measure$time == 18 | Sankey_measure$time == 24,
Sankey_measure$time - 6,
Sankey_measure$time)
#zosumarizuj, koľký mladí išli do ktorého opatrenia, zamestnali sa alebo odišli z registra z iných dôvodov
San_measure <- Sankey_measure %>% select(nastroj.y, time, sources) %>%
group_by(nastroj.y, time, sources) %>% summarise(num = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
rename(nastroj = nastroj.y)
# rozdeľ opatrenia, na tie ostatné almps - OTHER ALMPS
nastroj_kod <- c('another reason','employed')
NastrojKod <- San_measure[!San_measure$nastroj %in% nastroj_kod,] %>% group_by(nastroj) %>% summarise(num = sum(num), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(perc = num*100 / sum(num),
cut = case_when(perc >= 5 ~ 1,
perc < 5 ~ 0))
nastroj_kod <- c(nastroj_kod, NastrojKod$nastroj[NastrojKod$cut == '1'])
San_aplmps <- subset(San_measure, nastroj %in% nastroj_kod | nastroj == params$measure)
San_other_aplmps <- subset(San_measure, !nastroj %in% nastroj_kod & !nastroj == params$measure)
San_other_aplmps <- San_other_aplmps %>% group_by(sources , time) %>% summarise(num = sum(num), .groups = 'drop')
San_other_aplmps$nastroj <- 'OTHER ALMPS'
San_other_aplmps <- relocate(San_other_aplmps, c(nastroj, time), .before = sources,)
San_measure <- rbind(San_aplmps, San_other_aplmps)
remove(San_aplmps, San_other_aplmps)
# uzly grafu (jedinečné), musia tu byť všetky opatrenia
node_m <- data.frame(
name=c(as.character(San_measure$nastroj), as.character(San_measure$sources))%>% unique()
)
# definovanie koľko registrovaných bude medzi tými rokmi
velky_df <- data.frame()
for (i in seq(6,24,6)){
pocet <- San_measure %>% group_by('sources' = sources >= i) %>% summarise(num = sum(num), .groups = 'drop')
pocet <- subset(pocet, sources == TRUE)
pocet$sources <- i
velky_df <- rbind(velky_df, pocet)
}
# musím si velky_df prisposobiť tak, aby roky boli ako nodes aby som to mohla spojiť s dataframe San s ktorým potom budem ďalej robiť graf
# preto sources budu ako nastroj -> aby som spravila nodes, years su sources ale sources su years -1 v skutočnosti (v san grafe)
colnames(velky_df) <- c('nastroj', 'num')
velky_df$time <- velky_df$nastroj
velky_df$sources <- San_measure$sources[match(velky_df$time, San_measure$time)]
velky_df <- relocate(velky_df, num, .after = sources)
San_measure <- rbind(San_measure, velky_df)
#urobím IDsources a ID target podľa uzlov aby garf vedel ten flow medzi jednotlivími uzlami
San_measure$IDsource <- match(San_measure$sources, node_m$name)-1
San_measure$IDtarget <- match(San_measure$nastroj, node_m$name)-1
#Color
time <- seq(0,24,6)
NOALMP <- c('another reason', 'employed')
node_m <- node_m %>% mutate(group = case_when(node_m$name %in% NOALMP ~ 'A',
!node_m$name %in% NOALMP & !node_m$name %in% time ~ 'B',
node_m$name %in% time ~ 'C'
)
)
San_measure$group <- 'type_a'
my_color <- 'd3.scaleOrdinal() .domain(["type_a", "A","B", "C"]) .range(["lightgray", "darkseagreen", "thistle", "rosybrown", "red"])'
San_measure <- as.data.frame(San_measure)
Sankey_ev.measure <- sankeyNetwork(Links = San_measure, Nodes = node_m,
Source = "IDsource", Target = "IDtarget",
Value = "num", NodeID = "name",
sinksRight=F, fontSize = 14,
fontFamily = "sans-serif",
width = 900,
colourScale=my_color, LinkGroup="group", NodeGroup="group",
nodePadding=10)
condition_for_Sankeyplot <- length(unique(San_measure$IDsource))>=1 && length(unique(San_measure$IDtarget))>=1 && !any(is.na(San_measure$IDsource)) && !any(is.na(San_measure$IDtarget))The second flow chart shows the further state of the participants of the evaluated programme (further branching of the red line in graph 2) and what happened with them after participation in the evaluated programme. After participation in the programme, the participants can be employed, de-registered for another reason, or they can participate in another ALMP programme. We observed this behaviour for periods of two years after their participation. This period is divided into six months sub-periods (0/6/12/18).
Graph 2.2: Flowchart of participants in evaluation progname participated during evaluation period.
if(condition_for_Sankeyplot){
Sankey_ev.measure
}cond_for_table <- FALSE
if(condition_for_Sankeyplot){
Sankey_tabel2 <- data.frame(Measures = c(setdiff(nastroj_kod, c("another reason", "employed"))))
Sankey_tabel2$'Name of programme' <- Sankey_description$Labour.market.services[match(Sankey_tabel2$Measures, Sankey_description$almp)]
cond_for_table <- nrow(Sankey_tabel2) >=1
}The next table shows full names of programmes shown in graph above.
Table 1.2: Explanatory table for Graph 2.2
if (cond_for_table){
Sankey_tabel2 %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE)%>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE)%>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE)
}| Measures | Name of programme |
|---|---|
| P050 | Support for hiring disadvantaged job seekers |
| P054 | Projects and programmes |
| P51A2 | Incentives to hire young unemployed (<25) into their first job |
2. Data and the evaluation sample
This evaluation report is based on administrative data on registered unemployed jobseekers in Slovakia, inter-linkable with the database of participants in ALMP programmes. The export was provided by the Central Office of Labour, Social Affairs and Family of the Slovak Republic (COLSAF) at the beginning of 2021. It covered a period from January 2014 until December 2020. The raw data were processed using a data-preparation script, available on request from: miroslav.stefanik@savba.sk.
The data frame “df” covers all unemployment spells of unemployed jobseekers, with attributes collected at the moment of their registration as unemployed jobseekers (Application Form).
### DEFINE THE EVALUATION PERIOD #
ep_start <- as.Date(params$ep_start)
ep_end <- as.Date(params$ep_end)
un_spell <- spell
measure <- params$measure
########################################x
## SELECTING THE EVALUATION SAMPLE #
########################################x,
treated<-filter(almps, nastroj==toString(params$measure))
#Sub-groups to be dropped:
# - those with ALMP participation 2 years before the EP
IDalmps_before<-unique(almps$klient_id[almps$entrya<ep_start & almps$entrya>=ep_start-730])
# - those with ALMP participation in other ALMP during the EP
IDalmps_during_ep<-unique(almps$klient_id[(almps$entrya<=ep_end & almps$entrya>=ep_start) & almps$nastroj!=toString(params$measure)])
###DEFINE THE ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
#the EC are measure specific, in the case of looping over multiple measures EC need to be elaborated t a form of table or a list and added to the parameters
#SUBSETTING THE BASE EVALUATION DATASET OF ELIGIBLE
cond0<-as.logical(df$entry<=ep_end & df$exit>=ep_start) # Being on the register of unemployed during the evaluation period
cond1<-as.logical(df$age < age_group_max)
cond2<-as.logical((df$exit-df$entry)>=un_spell) #LENGTH OF PREVIOUS UNEMPLOYMENT SPELL
cond3<-as.logical(df$entry>=ep_start-730) # Dropping old unemployment spells (cases inflowing more than 730 days before the start of the evaluation period)
dfe<-df[cond0 & cond1 & cond2 & cond3,]
n1 <- dim(dfe)[1]
sampleIDs<-unique(df$klient_id[cond0 & cond1 & cond2 & cond3])
n2 <- length(sampleIDs)
###
#### ONLY KEEP THE SPELLS OF PARTICIPANTS DURING WHICH THEY PARTICIPATED
#### Creating dataframe of participants in the evaluated programme during the evaluation period.
dfa<-filter(treated, entrya<=ep_end & entrya>=ep_start)
npart0<-length(unique(dfa$klient_id))
npart1<-dim(dfa)[1]
#Drop other ALMP participations from the group of participants as well as the eligible non-participants
n3 <- nrow(filter(dfa, klient_id %in% IDalmps_before))
n4 <- nrow(filter(dfe, klient_id %in% IDalmps_before))
dfa<-filter(dfa, !klient_id %in% IDalmps_before)
dfe<-filter(dfe, !klient_id %in% IDalmps_before)
n5 <- nrow(filter(dfa, klient_id %in% IDalmps_during_ep))
n6 <- nrow(filter(dfe, klient_id %in% IDalmps_during_ep))
dfa<-filter(dfa, !klient_id %in% IDalmps_during_ep)
dfe<-filter(dfe, !klient_id %in% IDalmps_during_ep)
#### Only participants with one participation during the evaluation period are sampled.
#### JS with multiple participations are droped from the sample
dfa<-dfa %>%
group_by(klient_id) %>%
mutate(rep=n()) # rep is the number of participations of one JS repeating during 2014
n7 <- nrow(filter(dfa, rep!=1))
dfa<-filter(dfa, rep==1)
npart2<-dim(dfa)[1] # Number of participants after cleaning with multiple ALMP participations
###Participants who also participated in other ALMP measures (§54) are dropped
progOUT<- setdiff(c("P050", "P50A", "P50C","P50J", "P50K" ,"P51A", "P054", "P54D", "P54E", "P54O", "P54P", "P54U"),params$measure)
outIDs<-unique(almps$klient_id[(almps$entrya>=as.Date(params$ep_start) & almps$entrya<=as.Date(params$ep_end)+730) & as.logical(almps$nastroj %in% progOUT)])
n8 <- nrow(filter(dfa, klient_id %in% outIDs))
n9 <- nrow(filter(dfe, klient_id %in% outIDs))
dfa<-(filter(dfa, !klient_id %in% outIDs))
dfe<-(filter(dfe, !klient_id %in% outIDs))
npart3<-length(unique(dfa$klient_id)) # The number of participants after we drop participations in supported employment during the outcome observation period
#MERGING PARTICIPATIONS AND UNEMPLOYMENT SPELLS
#First we add the date of the entry and exit from the registration into the table of participations in measure (evaluated measure params$measure). We only import entry dates for the individuals in the evaluation sample.
dfa<-merge(dfa, select(dfe, klient_id, entry, exit), by="klient_id", all.x = TRUE)
nrowdfa <- nrow(dfa)
#Second we filter only the registrations of members of the evaluation sample during which the programme participation took place.
dfa<-filter(dfa, dfa$exit+30>=dfa$entrya & dfa$entrya<=ep_end & entrya >= entry) # Keeping only the participations happening during an unemployment spell
n10 <- nrowdfa-dim(dfa)[1]
npart4<-dim(dfa)[1] # Number of participants after cleaning participations outside an unemployment spell (data quality issue)
## Participants #
particIDs<-unique(dfa$klient_id)
## Eligible #
# nonpartIDs<-sampleIDs[!(sampleIDs %in% particIDs)]
nonpart<-filter(dfe, !(klient_id %in% particIDs))
###Out of the participants only one-time participations happening during an unemployment spell are used
partic<-merge(dfe, dfa, by = c("klient_id", "entry"), all.x = FALSE)
#LL: sanity check
#nonpart$klient_id
#partic$klient_id
#intersect(nonpart$klient_id,partic$klient_id)
#this should be empty. OK
### Cleaning and renaming #
partic$exit.y<-NULL
partic<-partic %>% rename(exit=exit.x)
nonpart$entrya<-NA
nonpart$exita<-NA
nonpart$nastroj<-NA
nonpart$naklady<-NA
nonpart$projekt<-NA
partic$rep<-NULL
#Filter extreme values (1%) of the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure
wte<-quantile(as.numeric(partic$entrya)-as.numeric(partic$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.99)
n11 <- nrow(filter(filter(partic, as.numeric(entrya)-as.numeric(entry)>wte)))
partic<-filter(partic, as.numeric(entrya)-as.numeric(entry)<=wte)
esample<-rbind(nonpart, partic)
esample$treated<-!is.na(esample$entrya)
#Filter extreme values of the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure
#LL:
#summary(esample$treated)
###Unemployment spells ending with LM placements
#esample<-filter(esample, dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V01' | dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V02' | dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V03' | dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V1' | dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V12' | dovod_vyradenia_kod == 'V15')
########################################x
## GENERATING EXPLANATORY VARIABLES #
########################################x,
esample$ent <- as.numeric(as.Date(ep_start))-as.numeric(as.Date(esample$entry))
#LL: quantile(esample$ent)
#niektore unemployment spells boli
# negativne (JS zacal byt nezamestnany po 1-1-2017),
# niektore pozitivne (JS zacal byt nezamestnany pred 1-1-2017)
########AGEG
esample$ageg <- cut_interval(esample$age, 5, labels=FALSE)
esample$ageg <- as.factor(esample$ageg)
####Extra columns for dummy variables go into the esample_est for further testing
esample <- dummy_cols(esample, select_columns = c("ageg"), remove_first_dummy = TRUE)
ageg_dummies<-colnames(esample)[grepl("ageg_", colnames(esample))]
#######Regional Unemployment rate during the implementation period
esample[, "UR_region"] <- esample[, paste0("UR_region_",year(ep_start), "")]
esample[,grepl("UR_region_", colnames(esample))]<-NULL
#esample$UR_region <- as.numeric(gsub(",", ".", gsub("\\.", "", esample$UR_region)))
##########Difference between entry into unemployment register and started of participation in measure
esample$diff_entry <- ceiling(as.integer(as.Date(esample$entrya) - as.Date(esample$entry))/30.417)
#Cleaning
#nonpart<-NULL
#partic<-NULL
# Share of repeated unemployment after participation in ALMP
# Merge esample, history table
h_esample <- merge(select(esample, klient_id, entry, exit, dovod_vyradenia_kod, entrya, exita, nastroj, treated), dfh, by = 'klient_id', all.x = TRUE, all.y = FALSE)
# as.Date
entry <- paste('entry', seq(1:11), sep = '')
exit <- paste('exit', seq(1:11), sep = '')
for (e in entry){
h_esample[ ,e] <- as.Date(h_esample[ ,e], origin = '1970-01-01')
}
for (x in exit){
h_esample[ ,x] <- as.Date(h_esample[ ,x], origin = '1970-01-01')
}
h_esample$exita <- as.Date(h_esample$exita, origin = '1970-01-01')
#Dropping cases with over than 15 unemployment spells
#h_esample<-filter(h_esample, is.na(entry16)) #subset (klient_id) jobseekers who became unemployment only 15 times
#esample <- subset(esample, klient_id %in% h_esample$klient_id)
#remove entry16+ and exit16+ columns
#h_esample<-select(h_esample, -entry16, -entry17, -entry18, -entry19, -entry20, -exit16, -exit17, -exit18, -exit19, -exit20)
esample_condition <- (mean(esample$treated) < 0.00001)if(esample_condition) {
knitr::knit_exit()
}2.1 Description of participants and eligible
Our evaluation sample consists of 300 626 eligible individuals, registered as jobseekers during the evaluation period starting from 2017-01-01 until 2017-12-31, These jobseekers have generated in total 316 875 unemployment registrations during the period 2014-2020. Out of them, in 5 014 jobseekers participated in the evaluated measure Commuting allowance during the evaluation period. 3 174 participants and 127 929 eligible JS were dropped from the sample, because of multiple participations in the evaluated program (or other relevant ALMPs) during and after the evaluation period. After cleaning we have sampled 1 840 JS with one-time participation during the evaluation period. At the same time, there was 188 946 eligible non-participants present in the register of unemployed jobseekers during 2017.
The group of participants and eligible show differences in a number of observed characteristics. Table 2 displays an overview of these differences on mean values of selected characteristics.
Table 2: Descriptive statistics of participants and eligible (selected characteristics)
####
## number of participants and eligible
####
#separate table dfe with participants in ALMP and eligible
elig <- distinct_at(nonpart,vars(klient_id),.keep_all = TRUE)
part <- distinct_at(partic,vars(klient_id),.keep_all = TRUE)
#BASIC DESCRIPTIVE TABLE
# The number of participants and eligible in the sample'
#tab1<-cbind(sum(!is.na(dfe$entrya)),sum(is.na(dfe$entrya)))
tab1 <- cbind(format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==TRUE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE), format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==FALSE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
colnames(tab1) <- c('Participants', 'Eligible')
tab1 <- data.frame(cbind(Description = 'Number of observations', tab1))
####
## Age distribution
####
age_par <- part %>% select(age) %>% group_by(age) %>% dplyr::summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%"))
age_elig <- elig %>% select(age) %>% group_by(age) %>% dplyr::summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
age <- merge(age_par, age_elig, by='age', all = TRUE)
age$Participants_percent <- ifelse(is.na(age$Participants_percent), paste(0,'%'), age$Participants_percent)
age$Participants_total <- ifelse(is.na(age$Participants_total), 0, age$Participants_total)
mean_age_par <- round(mean(part$age),1)
mean_age_elig <- round(mean(elig$age),1)
##### MEAN
mean_age<-data.frame(mean_age_par,mean_age_elig)
mean_age <- cbind(Description = 'Age (years)', mean_age)
mean_age <- rename(mean_age, Participants = mean_age_par, Eligible=mean_age_elig)
####
age_elig$desc <- 'Eligible'
age_par$desc <- 'Participants'
age_elig <- age_elig %>% rename(total = Eligible_total, percent = Eligible_percent)
age_par <- age_par %>% rename(total = Participants_total, percent = Participants_percent)
age_r <- rbind(age_par,age_elig)
age_plot <- ggplot(age_r, aes(x = age, y = total, group= desc)) +
geom_point(aes(color = desc), size = 1.5)+
geom_line(aes(color = desc), size = 1) +
ylim(0,23000) +
theme_light() +
geom_text(aes(label = paste(percent, '\n\n' )), col ='black', size = 3, fontface ='italic')+
labs(
title = "Compare of age distribution (%)",
x = "Age",
y = "Total Count"
)
####
## Gender distribution
####
gender_par <- part %>% select(male) %>% group_by(male) %>% dplyr::summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%"))
gender_elig <- elig %>% select(male) %>% group_by(male) %>% dplyr::summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
gender <- merge(gender_par, gender_elig, by='male', all = TRUE)
####
male <- data.frame(gender_par[2,3], gender_elig[2,3])
male <- cbind(Description = 'Male', male)
male <- rename(male, Participants = Participants_percent, Eligible=Eligible_percent)
####
## Education distribution
####
education_par <- part %>% select(noedu, primary, lsec, usec, tertiary) %>%
group_by(noedu, primary, lsec, usec, tertiary) %>% dplyr::summarise(Participants_total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(Participants = round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2))
education_par <- education_par[!(is.na(education_par$noedu)),]
education_par <- reshape2::melt(education_par, measure.vars = c('noedu', 'primary', 'lsec', 'usec', 'tertiary'))
education_par <- education_par[education_par$value == 1,]
education_par <- select(education_par, -value)
education_elig <- elig %>% select(noedu, primary, lsec, usec, tertiary) %>%
group_by(noedu, primary, lsec, usec, tertiary) %>% dplyr::summarise(Eligible_total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(Eligible = round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2))
education_elig <- education_elig[!(is.na(education_elig$noedu)),]
education_elig <- reshape2::melt(education_elig, measure.vars = c('noedu', 'primary', 'lsec', 'usec', 'tertiary'))
education_elig <- education_elig[education_elig$value == 1,]
education_elig <- select(education_elig, -value)
education <- merge(education_par, education_elig, by='variable', all = TRUE)
education <- select(education, variable, Participants, Eligible)
education <- rename(education, Description = variable)
education <- education%>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
education$Description == 'noedu' ~ 'No education',
education$Description == 'primary' ~ 'Primary',
education$Description == 'lsec' ~ 'Lower secondary',
education$Description == 'usec' ~ 'Upper secondary',
education$Description == 'tertiary' ~ 'Tertiary',
TRUE~as.character(education$Description)
)
)
education <- education %>% group_by(Description) %>%
dplyr::summarise(Participants = paste0(sum(Participants), "%"), Eligible = paste0(sum(Eligible), "%"))
x <- c('No education','Primary','Lower secondary', 'Upper secondary', 'Tertiary')
education <- education[match(x, education$Description),]
####
## skills
####
l_skills_par <- part %>% select(flang) %>%
mutate(flang = case_when(part$flang == 1 ~ 'Foreign language')) %>%
group_by(flang) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = flang) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
l_skills_elig <- elig %>% select(flang) %>%
mutate(flang = case_when(elig$flang == 1 ~ 'Foreign language')) %>%
group_by(flang) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = flang) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
PC_skills_par <- part %>% select(pc) %>%
mutate(pc = case_when(part$pc == 1 ~ 'PC skill')) %>%
group_by(pc) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = pc) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
PC_skills_elig <- elig %>% select(pc) %>%
mutate(pc = case_when(elig$pc == 1 ~ 'PC skill')) %>%
group_by(pc) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = pc) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
d_skills_par <- part %>% select(drive) %>%
mutate(drive = case_when(part$drive == 1 ~ 'Driving license')) %>%
group_by(drive) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = drive) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
d_skills_elig <- elig %>% select(drive) %>%
mutate(drive = case_when(elig$drive == 1 ~ 'Driving license')) %>%
group_by(drive) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = drive) %>% filter(row_number() == 1L)
l_skills <- merge(l_skills_par, l_skills_elig, by='Description', all = TRUE)
PC_skills <- merge(PC_skills_par, PC_skills_elig, by='Description', all = TRUE)
d_skills <- merge(d_skills_par, d_skills_elig, by='Description', all = TRUE)
skills <- rbind(l_skills, PC_skills, d_skills)
skills <- select(skills, Description, Participants_percent, Eligible_percent)
skills <- rename(skills, Participants = Participants_percent, Eligible=Eligible_percent)
####
## region
####
part <- part %>% mutate(
okres = case_when(
grepl('SK010',okres) ~ 'Bratislavský',
grepl('SK021',okres) ~ 'Trnavský',
grepl('SK022',okres) ~ 'Trenčiansky',
grepl('SK023',okres) ~ 'Nitriansky',
grepl('SK031',okres) ~ 'Žilinský',
grepl('SK032',okres) ~ 'Banskobystrický',
grepl('SK041',okres) ~ 'Prešovský',
grepl('SK042',okres) ~ 'Košický',
TRUE~as.character(okres)
)
)
elig <- elig %>% mutate(
okres = case_when(
grepl('SK010',okres) ~ 'Bratislavský',
grepl('SK021',okres) ~ 'Trnavský',
grepl('SK022',okres) ~ 'Trenčiansky',
grepl('SK023',okres) ~ 'Nitriansky',
grepl('SK031',okres) ~ 'Žilinský',
grepl('SK032',okres) ~ 'Banskobystrický',
grepl('SK041',okres) ~ 'Prešovský',
grepl('SK042',okres) ~ 'Košický',
TRUE~as.character(okres)
)
)
okres_par <- part %>% select(okres) %>% group_by(okres) %>% dplyr::summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%"))
okres_elig <- elig %>% select(okres) %>% group_by(okres) %>% dplyr::summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
okres <- merge(okres_par, okres_elig, by='okres', all = TRUE)
okres <- select(okres, okres, Participants, Eligible)
okres <- rename(okres, Description = okres)
okres <- okres[okres$Description != 'N/A',]
####
## Previous employment
####
prev_emp_part <- part %>% select(empl) %>% group_by(empl) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = empl, Participants = Participants_percent)
prev_emp_elig <- elig %>% select(empl) %>% group_by(empl) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = empl, Eligible = Eligible_percent)
prev_emp <- merge(prev_emp_part, prev_emp_elig, by='Description', all = TRUE)
prev_emp <- select(prev_emp, Description, Participants, Eligible)
prev_emp <- prev_emp[prev_emp$Description == 1,]
prev_emp$Description[prev_emp$Description == 1 ] <- 'Previous employment'
####
## Nationality
####
nat_part <- part %>% select(slovak, hungarian, roma, czech, othern) %>%
group_by(slovak, hungarian, roma, czech, othern) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2),'%'))
nat_part$othern <- ifelse(nat_part$othern == 'TRUE', 1,0)
nat_part <- reshape2::melt(nat_part, measure.vars = c('slovak', 'hungarian', 'roma', 'czech', 'othern'))
nat_part <- nat_part[nat_part$value == 1,]
nat_part <- select(nat_part, -value)
nat_elig <- elig %>% select(slovak, hungarian, roma, czech, othern) %>%
group_by(slovak, hungarian, roma, czech, othern) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2),'%'))
nat_elig$othern <- ifelse(nat_elig$othern == 'TRUE', 1,0)
nat_elig <- reshape2::melt(nat_elig, measure.vars = c('slovak', 'hungarian', 'roma', 'czech', 'othern'))
nat_elig <- nat_elig[nat_elig$value == 1,]
nat_elig <- select(nat_elig, -value)
nat <- merge(nat_part, nat_elig, by='variable', all = TRUE)
nat <- select(nat, variable, Participants, Eligible)
nat <- rename(nat, Description = variable)
nat <- nat %>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
nat$Description == 'slovak' ~ 'Slovak',
nat$Description == 'hungarian' ~ 'Hungarian',
nat$Description == 'czech'~ 'Czech',
nat$Description == 'roma' ~ 'Roma',
nat$Description == 'othern'~ 'Other',
)
)
x <- c('Slovak','Hungarian', 'Czech','Roma','Other')
nat <- nat[match(x, nat$Description),]
####
## Length of the unemployment spell
####
part$un_spell <- as.integer(part$exit - part$entry)
elig$un_spell <- as.integer(elig$exit - elig$entry)
un_spell <- cbind(round(mean(part$un_spell),2), round(mean(elig$un_spell),2))
un_spell <- data.frame(cbind(Description = 'Length of the unemployment spell', un_spell))
un_spell <- rename(un_spell, Participants = V2, Eligible=V3)
####
## Length of spell between unemployment and participation
####
#Rozdiel medzi evidenciou nezamestnanosti a nastúpenia do AOTP
part$spell_b <- as.integer(part$entrya - part$entry)
spell_bup <- part %>% select(spell_b) %>%
mutate(month = ceiling(spell_b/30.417)) #roundup -> ceiling
spell_bup_p <- ggplot(data=spell_bup, aes(month)) +
geom_histogram(binwidth=1, fill="grey", color="black", alpha=0.9) +
theme_light() +
theme(legend.position = "none")+
labs(
title = "Inflow into the programme in months\nsince the start of the unemployment",
x = "Months",
y = "Total Count"
) +
scale_x_continuous()
####
## Length of AOTP
####
part$spell_aotp <- as.integer(part$exita - part$entrya)
spell_aotp <- part %>% select(spell_aotp) %>%
mutate(month = ceiling(spell_aotp/30.417)) #roundup -> ceiling
spell_aotp_p <- ggplot(data=spell_aotp, aes(month)) +
geom_histogram(binwidth=1, fill="grey", color="black", alpha=0.9) +
theme_light() +
theme(legend.position = "none") +
labs(
title = "Length of participation\n (in months)",
x = "Months",
y = "Total Count"
) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = scales::breaks_extended(length(unique(spell_aotp$month))))
####
## Compare of length spell
####
spell_p <- ggarrange(spell_bup_p, spell_aotp_p)
####
## In flow
####
a <- format(seq(as.Date(ep_start),length=3,by="1 month"),"%Y-%m")
b <- format(seq((ymd(as.Date(ep_start)) %m+% months(3)),length=3,by="1 month"),"%Y-%m")
c <- format(seq((ymd(as.Date(ep_start)) %m+% months(6)),length=3,by="1 month"),"%Y-%m")
d <- format(seq((ymd(as.Date(ep_start)) %m+% months(9)),length=3,by="1 month"),"%Y-%m")
#vstúpili do programu
in_part <- part %>% select(entrya) %>% group_by(format(as.Date(entrya),"%Y-%m")) %>%
summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2))
colnames(in_part)[1] <- 'Description'
in_part <- filter(in_part, str_detect(in_part$Description, (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))))
in_part <- in_part%>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
in_part$Description %in% a ~ paste0('1Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_part$Description %in% b ~ paste0('2Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_part$Description %in% c ~ paste0('3Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_part$Description %in% d ~ paste0('4Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
)
)
in_part <- in_part %>% select(Description, Participants_total) %>% group_by(Description) %>%
summarise(Participants_total = sum(Participants_total)) %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2),'%'))
#sa stali nezamestnaný
in_elig <- elig %>% select(entry) %>% group_by(format(as.Date(entry),"%Y-%m")) %>%
summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
colnames(in_elig)[1] <- 'Description'
in_elig <- filter(in_elig, str_detect(in_elig$Description, (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))))
in_elig <- in_elig%>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
in_elig$Description %in% a ~ paste0('1Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_elig$Description %in% b ~ paste0('2Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_elig$Description %in% c ~ paste0('3Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
in_elig$Description %in% d ~ paste0('4Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
)
)
in_elig <- in_elig %>% select(Description, Eligible_total) %>% group_by(Description) %>%
summarise(Eligible_total = sum(Eligible_total)) %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
inflow <- merge(in_part, in_elig, by='Description', all = FALSE)
inflow <- select(inflow, Description, Participants, Eligible)
####
## Outflow
####
#vystúpili z programu
out_part <- part %>% select(exita) %>% group_by(format(as.Date(exita),"%Y-%m")) %>%
summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants_percent = round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2))
colnames(out_part)[1] <- 'Description'
out_part <- filter(out_part, str_detect(out_part$Description, (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))))
out_part <- out_part%>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
out_part$Description %in% a ~ paste0('1Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_part$Description %in% b ~ paste0('2Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_part$Description %in% c ~ paste0('3Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_part$Description %in% d ~ paste0('4Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
)
)
out_part <- out_part %>% select(Description, Participants_total) %>% group_by(Description) %>%
summarise(Participants_total = sum(Participants_total)) %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2),'%'))
#vystúpili z evidencie -> zamestnali sa
out_elig <- elig %>% select(exit) %>% group_by(format(as.Date(exit),"%Y-%m")) %>%
summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible_percent = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
colnames(out_elig)[1] <- 'Description'
out_elig <- filter(out_elig, str_detect(out_elig$Description, (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))))
out_elig <- out_elig%>%mutate(
Description = case_when(
out_elig$Description %in% a ~ paste0('1Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_elig$Description %in% b ~ paste0('2Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_elig$Description %in% c ~ paste0('3Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
out_elig$Description %in% d ~ paste0('4Q.', (format(as.Date(ep_start),"%Y"))),
)
)
out_elig <- out_elig %>% select(Description, Eligible_total) %>% group_by(Description) %>%
summarise(Eligible_total = sum(Eligible_total)) %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%"))
outflow <- merge(out_part, out_elig, by='Description', all = FALSE)
outflow <- select(outflow, Description, Participants, Eligible)
####
## Children in the household
####
child_part <- part %>% select(kids) %>% group_by(kids) %>% summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = kids)
child_elig <- elig %>% select(kids) %>% group_by(kids) %>% summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2), "%")) %>%
rename(Description = kids)
child <- merge(child_part, child_elig, by='Description', all = TRUE)
child <- select(child, Description, Participants, Eligible)
child <- child[child$Description == 1,]
child$Description[child$Description == 1] <- 'Children in the household'
####
## Fields of study
####
study_part <- part %>% select(odbor) %>% group_by(odbor) %>%
summarise(Participants_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Participants = round(100 * Participants_total / sum(Participants_total),2))
study_elig <- elig %>% select(odbor) %>% group_by(odbor) %>%
summarise(Eligible_total = n()) %>%
mutate(Eligible = round(100 * Eligible_total / sum(Eligible_total),2))
study <- merge(study_part, study_elig, by='odbor', all = TRUE)
study <- select(study, odbor, Participants, Eligible)
study$Participants <- ifelse(is.na(study$Participants), 0, study$Participants)
a <- as.character(c(seq(11,19,1)))
b <- as.character(c(seq(21,39,1)))
c <- as.character(c(seq(41,49,1)))
d <- as.character(c(seq(51,59,1)))
e <- as.character(c(seq(61,79,1)))
f <- as.character(c(seq(81,89,1)))
g <- as.character(c(seq(91,98,1)))
study <- study%>%mutate(
odbor = case_when(
study$odbor %in% a ~ 'Natural Science',
study$odbor %in% b ~ 'Technical sciences',
study$odbor %in% c ~ 'Agricultural, forestry and veterinary sciences',
study$odbor %in% d ~ 'Medical and pharmaceutical sciences',
study$odbor %in% e ~ 'Social sciences and services',
study$odbor %in% f ~ 'Sciences of culture and art',
study$odbor %in% g ~ 'Military and security sciences',
study$odbor == 99 || study$odbor == 0 || study$odbor == 10 ~ 'General sciences and services ',
TRUE~as.character(study$odbor)
)
)
study <- study %>% select(odbor, Participants, Eligible) %>%
group_by(odbor) %>%
summarise(Participants = sum(Participants), Eligible = sum(Eligible)) %>%
mutate(Participants = paste0(Participants, "%")) %>%
mutate(Eligible = paste0(Eligible, "%"))
study <- rename(study, Description = odbor)
####
## SUMMARIZE ####
####
colnames(tab1)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
colnames(mean_age)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
colnames(male)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
colnames(prev_emp)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
colnames(un_spell)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
colnames(child)<-c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible")
tables <- c('tab1', 'mean_age', 'male', 'prev_emp', 'un_spell', 'child')
basics <- data.frame()
for (name in tables){
table <- get(name)
table <- mutate(table, across(everything(), as.factor))
basics <- bind_rows(basics, table)
}
tables <- c('basics', 'education', 'study', 'skills', 'okres', 'nat', 'inflow', 'outflow')
for (name in tables){
table <- get(name)
table <- add_column(table, Variable = name, .after = "Eligible")
colnames(table) <- c("Description", "Participants", "Eligible", "Variable")
assign(name, table)
}
sum_table <- rbind(basics, education, study, skills, okres, nat, inflow, outflow)
sum_table <- sum_table %>% relocate(Variable, .before = Description) %>%mutate(
Variable = case_when(
sum_table$Variable == 'basics' ~ 'Basics',
sum_table$Variable == 'education' ~ 'Education level',
sum_table$Variable == 'study' ~ 'Field of study',
sum_table$Variable == 'skills' ~ 'Skills',
sum_table$Variable == 'okres' ~ 'Region',
sum_table$Variable == 'nat' ~ 'Nationality',
sum_table$Variable == 'inflow' ~ 'Inflow',
sum_table$Variable == 'outflow' ~ 'Outflow',
TRUE ~ as.character(sum_table$Variable)
)
)
sum_table$Participants <- ifelse(is.na(sum_table$Participants) | gsub('\\D','', sum_table$Participants) == "",
ifelse(is.na(sum_table$Participants) | gsub('\\D','', sum_table$Participants) == "",
ifelse(str_detect(as.character(sum_table$Eligible), regex("%")), '0%',0),
as.character(sum_table$Participants)),
as.character(sum_table$Participants))
sum_table[,2:4] %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE) %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE) %>%
pack_rows(index = table(fct_inorder(sum_table$Variable)))| Description | Participants | Eligible |
|---|---|---|
| Basics | ||
| Number of observations | 1 840 | 188 946 |
| Age (years) | 37.6 | 38.1 |
| Male | 31.96% | 50.66% |
| Previous employment | 8.75% | 9.02% |
| Length of the unemployment spell | 251.37 | 337.02 |
| Children in the household | 14.35% | 12.57% |
| Education level | ||
| No education | 0.33% | 0.81% |
| Primary | 6.96% | 14.8% |
| Lower secondary | 26.03% | 29.28% |
| Upper secondary | 39.73% | 34.08% |
| Tertiary | 26.96% | 21.02% |
| Field of study | ||
| Agricultural, forestry and veterinary sciences | 3.59% | 4.54% |
| General sciences and services | 25.92% | 34.8% |
| Medical and pharmaceutical sciences | 3.09% | 1.53% |
| Military and security sciences | 0.33% | 0.36% |
| Natural Science | 1.4% | 0.69% |
| Sciences of culture and art | 0.6% | 1.09% |
| Social sciences and services | 36.19% | 25.41% |
| Technical sciences | 28.87% | 31.59% |
| Skills | ||
| Foreign language | 65.49% | 58.71% |
| PC skill | 64.35% | 51.95% |
| Driving license | 55.11% | 52.47% |
| Region | ||
| Banskobystrický | 9.13% | 12.36% |
| Bratislavský | 2.72% | 11.66% |
| Košický | 20.43% | 15.28% |
| Nitriansky | 11.58% | 12.37% |
| Prešovský | 21.09% | 17.7% |
| Trenčiansky | 8.53% | 9.69% |
| Trnavský | 8.97% | 8.76% |
| Žilinský | 17.55% | 12.18% |
| Nationality | ||
| Slovak | 93.7% | 90.17% |
| Hungarian | 5.38% | 8.52% |
| Czech | 0.38% | 0.47% |
| Roma | 0.11% | 0.19% |
| Other | 0.43% | 0.65% |
| Inflow | ||
| 1Q.2017 | 24.24% | 27.76% |
| 2Q.2017 | 26.36% | 24.85% |
| 3Q.2017 | 22.12% | 24.18% |
| 4Q.2017 | 27.28% | 23.21% |
| Outflow | ||
| 1Q.2017 | 1.18% | 28.65% |
| 2Q.2017 | 3.04% | 31.04% |
| 3Q.2017 | 47.55% | 21.66% |
| 4Q.2017 | 48.24% | 18.65% |
Graph 3: Timing and length of participation in the evaluated program
require(gridExtra)
if (nrow(spell_bup) > 5){
mx <- max(spell_bup$month)
mn <- min(spell_bup$month)
plot1 <- ggplot(data=spell_bup, aes(month)) +
geom_histogram(binwidth=3, bins=30, breaks=seq(mn, mx, by=0.5), alpha=0.8,col="white", fill="steelblue3") +
theme_minimal()+
ggtitle("Inflow into the program in months\nsince the start of the unemployment") +
xlab("Months") +
ylab("Total Count")+
scale_x_continuous(breaks= pretty_breaks())
}
if (nrow(spell_aotp) > 5){
mx <- max(spell_aotp$month)
mn <- min(spell_aotp$month)
plot2 <- ggplot(data=spell_aotp, aes(month)) +
geom_histogram(binwidth=3, bins=30, breaks=seq(mn, mx, by=0.5), alpha=0.8,col="white", fill="steelblue3") +
theme_minimal()+
ggtitle("Length of participation\n(in months)") +
xlab("Months") +
ylab("Total Count")+
scale_x_continuous(breaks= pretty_breaks())
}
grid.arrange(plot1, plot2, ncol=2)
3. The impact of participation in the Commuting allowance during 2017
The ultimate objective of ALMP programmes is improving employment chances of its beneficiaries. Constrained by the data provided, we construct four outcome indicators. All four of them are based on the presence in (absence from) the register of JSs administrated by COLSAF. They are, therefore, proxies of the employment status.
#Estimation parameters
#LL: there will be four different samples according to how long have JSs been unemployed prior to receiving the training
Ssamples <- seq(1,4)
# Month of participation since the start of the evaluation period
participation_month<-((year(as.Date(esample$entrya))-min(year(ep_start)))*12)+month(as.Date(esample$entrya))
#LL: participation quarter, if JS was treated on 3 Feb, pcpQ == 1
pcpQ<-ceiling(participation_month/3)
max_pcpQ<-max(pcpQ, na.rm = TRUE)
#LL: create an object that will store data
Mdata<-c()
#LL: these are the periods that we will look at
# the negative values correspond to "placebo" effects. We should not see any effect there, or only a small one.
OQm <- seq(-12,36,3)
OQ <- -4:12
O_vars <- c(paste("empl",OQ, sep=""), "firstempl", "cumempl")
O_vars<-str_replace(O_vars, "-", ".")
#LL: O_vars stores outcome variables
# empl.2 means employment 2 quarters before the start of the evaluation period.
# empl0 will correspond to the last quarter of the year before the start of the eval. period
# empl1 will correspond to the first quarter of the start year of the eval. period
#LL: This is a list of baseline covariates that will be used throughout the analysis
# they correspond to a reasonable minimum of information that should be controlled for
# in order to have a meaningful comparison
list_vars <- c('ent', 'male', 'married','kids',
'slovak', 'noedu','primary', 'lsec', 'usec',
'flang', 'drive', 'pc',
'unpast', 'min_urad', 'min_BA',
'UR_region', 'roma_share', 'population', 'age')
#LL: In order to have a credible comparison groups. We need to look how similar the groups are, how balanced they are.
# we compare the mean differences BEFORE adjustment and AFTER adjustment
Balance_vars <- list_vars
#LL: We allocate objects that will store the results
#LL: number of treated units
N<-nrow(esample[esample$treated==TRUE,])
#LL: number of treated units in a particular esample
N_sp <- matrix(NA, nrow=length(Ssamples))
#LL: results array ATT. We are interested in the average treatment effect on the TREATED subpopulation.
# in this particular case, most LM programs are intended for a specific subpopulation.
# it is therefore of less interest to look at the whole population of JSs (ATE)
resultsArray_ATT <- array(NA, dim=c(length(O_vars),length(Ssamples)))
dimnames(resultsArray_ATT)[[1]] <- c(O_vars)
#LL: we also store standard errors that quantify STATISTICAL uncertainty of our estimates
resultsArray_se <- array(NA, dim=c(length(O_vars),length(Ssamples)))
dimnames(resultsArray_se)[[1]] <- c(O_vars)
results <- array(NA, dim=c(length(O_vars),2))
### 1. Counting of ATTs
Sesample <- esample
###Four sub-samples based on the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure (cutoffs p25, p50, p75):
#LL: these will make 4 (roughly equally sized) different groups according to how long JSs have been unemployed
# this is an important determinant of the effect and it is important to control for it
wtc25<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.25)
wtc50<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.50)
wtc75<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.75)
minToP<-min(as.numeric(Sesample$entrya)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry), na.rm = TRUE)
partic<-Sesample[Sesample$treated==TRUE,]
nonpart<-Sesample[Sesample$treated==FALSE,]
#LL: Nonparticipants have only criterium of minimal length of unemployment
# (thus one non-participant can be used multiple times)
esample1<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>minToP,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc25,])
esample2<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc25,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc25 &
as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc50,])
esample3<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc50,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc50 &
as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc75,])
esample4<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc75,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc75,])
#LL: We loop over 4 different lenghts of the prior unemployments
for (s in Ssamples) {
esampleS <- get(paste0('esample', s, by = ''))
# we count how many participants are there in a particular group.
N_sp[s,] <- nrow(esampleS[esampleS$treated==TRUE,])
if (mean(esampleS$treated) > 0.0001){
#LL: we pick a particular subsample of variables.
esampleS <-esampleS[,c("treated", "klient_id",
"entry", "exit", "entrya",
list_vars)]
# Month of participation since the start of the evaluation period
esampleS$participation_month<-((year(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))-year(ep_start))*12)+
month(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))
#LL: maybe simplify it to
#month(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))
#?
# we can use this with current specification of esample ( participants in the evaluated programme during the evaluation period (ep -> one year) + eligible unemployed at the same period)
# if we change specification of esample (i.e. What happened with those ones who became unemployed in a specific year (2017) and they can enter into the program after 3 months since they become unemployed (but they can enter into program 24 months since they become unemployed too))
# Participation quarter
esampleS$pcpQ<-ceiling(esampleS$participation_month/3)
#LL: instead, we could have just
#esampleS$pcpQ<-quarter(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))
# without the need to define participation_month
# Month of the start of the unemployment since the start of the evaluation period
esampleS$Ustart_month<-((year(as.Date(esampleS$entry))-min(year(ep_start)))*12)+
month(as.Date(esampleS$entry))
#LL: notice that this is a relative number, thus it can be negative(!)
# Inflow quarter
esampleS$infQ<-ceiling(esampleS$Ustart_month/3)
#LL: infQ = 0 means that this JS entered the register in Q4 of 2016 (if ep_start=="2017-01-01")
# Outflow quarter
esampleS$Uend_month<-((year(as.Date(esampleS$exit))-min(year(ep_start)))*12)+
month(as.Date(esampleS$exit))
esampleS$outQ<-ceiling(esampleS$Uend_month/3)
##Difference between entry into unemployment register and started of participation in measure
esampleS$diff_entry <- ceiling(as.integer(as.Date(esampleS$entrya) - as.Date(esampleS$entry))/30.417)
#LL: NOTEL why 30.417?
# table(ceiling(difftime(as.Date(esampleS$entrya), as.Date(esampleS$entry), units = "days")/30.417))
# parameters of difftime units = c("auto", "secs", "mins", "hours", "days", "weeks")
# haven't "months" unit
#Adding unemployment history
#LL: previous unemployment history is an important predictor of both the treatment and outcomes
# it is important to control for it.
esampleS<-merge(esampleS,
h_esample[,c("klient_id", "entry",
paste0("entry", seq(1:11), sep=""),
paste0("exit", seq(1:11), sep=""))],
by=c("klient_id", "entry"), all.y = FALSE)
#Imputing the start of the unemployment spell
#LL: wait, isn't it
# #Imputing the start of the programme ? YES
#LL: we wish to make a meaningful comparison.
# But we're facing a problem because for the non-participants, we don't have date of entry to the course
# well simply because they did not participate(!)
# what we do is the following.
# for every suitable non-participant we chose one particular quarter at random from the evaluation year that is "feasible"
# "feasible" means that the non-participant _could_have_ potentially participated in that quarter
# given that we have a large donor pool, this randomness will not impact our estimates much.
#LL: In Pmatrix, we will store for every non-participant, the feasible quarters.
# e.g. if it is [0 1 1 1], it means that with prob. 1/3 we pick quarter 2,3 or 4
Pmatrix <- matrix(NA, nrow = nrow(esampleS[esampleS$treated==FALSE,]), ncol=max_pcpQ)
#LL: we loop through the participation quarters
for (p in 1:max_pcpQ){
#LL: NOTE!!!!
# we restrict ourselves to only non-participants who are at the (beginning of the) particular pcpQ unemployed
ind <- (esampleS$outQ[esampleS$treated==FALSE]>=p)
# Quarter of inflow to unemployment of participants entering the programme in quarter P
PinfQ<-unique(esampleS$infQ[esampleS$treated==TRUE & esampleS$pcpQ==p])
# Only allowing non-participants inflowing to unemployment during the quarters when participants in this sub-sample were inflowing
#D<-esampleS[as.logical(esampleS$treated==T & esampleS$pcpQ == p) |
# as.logical(esampleS$treated==F & esampleS$infQ %in% PinfQ),]
#LL: NOTE: what is this last commented bit?
Pmatrix[ind,p]<-as.numeric((esampleS$infQ[esampleS$treated==FALSE])[ind] %in% PinfQ)
Pmatrix[!ind,p] <- 0
#LL: does, for this particular quarter of inflow, exists anyone from the list of participants?
# in other words
# can we, in a given sample for a given quarter match it to at least one participant?
}
hh <- function(j){
sample(which(j==1),1)
}
sumIsZero <- as.logical(apply(Pmatrix, 1, FUN=sum)==0)
sumIsNonZero <- as.logical(apply(Pmatrix, 1, FUN=sum)!=0)
esampleS[esampleS$treated == FALSE,]$pcpQ[sumIsZero] <- 0
#LL: for every non-participant, for whose inflow we cannot match to ANY participant
# for any of the four quarters, we assign zero
esampleS[esampleS$treated == FALSE,]$pcpQ[sumIsNonZero] <- apply(Pmatrix[sumIsNonZero,],1,hh)
#LL: for every non-participant we pick one of the feasible quarters RANDOMLY for given esampleS (we have four of these)
# (remember: feasible means that there exists at least one participant for inflow)
#LL: NOTE: did we fix the seed?? if not, we should.
#LL: loop across different time periods
for (q in OQm) {
cond <- FALSE
#LL: we add variables whether someone is in the register.
# we consider at most 11 unemployment spells.
for (n in 1:11) {
entry_n <- esampleS[ ,paste0('entry', n, '')]
exit_n <- esampleS[, paste0('exit', n, '')]
cond <- cond | isInRegister(p = esampleS$pcpQ, q, entry_n, exit_n)
}
esampleS[ ,paste0('empl',ceiling(q/3), '')] <- ifelse(cond, 0,1)
}
#LL: NOTE: can't this be in the same loop (?)
for(q in OQm){
esampleS <- esampleS[!is.na(esampleS[ ,paste0('empl',ceiling(q/3), '')]),]
}
#Pre-estimation data preparation
#Additional outcome variables
esampleS[ ,"cumempl"] <- rowSums(esampleS[, paste0("empl", seq(0,12,1), sep="")])
esampleS[ ,"firstempl"] <- ceiling(as.numeric((as.Date(esampleS$exit)-
(as.Date(ep_start) + months(esampleS$pcpQ*3)))/90))
#LL: NOTE: here persons with multiple unempl spell WITHIN the studied year could create problems
# Cleaning the Xs
y <- data.frame(treated = esampleS[ ,'treated'])
D <- data.frame(esampleS) #D - su tvoje data ako data.frame()
spec <- as.formula(cbind(y,D[,c(list_vars,
paste0("empl.", seq(1,4,1), sep=""))]))
#je tvoja specifikacia modelu, je to object as.formula()
colTh <- 0.8
#Treshold for the acceptable correlation between vars ( je maximalne tolerovana korelacia medzi dvoma premennymi)
dumTh <- 0.0001
#Treshold for the acceptable concentration of dummy variables (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
TdumTh <- 0.005
#Treshold for the acceptable concentration of dummy variables in the sub-group of participants (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
TdumThN <- 5
#Treshold for the minimal number of observations of a dummy variables in the sub-group of participants (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
result <- DatPrep(D = D, spec = spec, colTh = colTh, dumTh = dumTh, TdumTh = TdumTh, TdumThN = TdumThN)
for (col in colnames(result$D)){
D <- D[!is.na(D[,col]),]
}
# ESTIMATION:
m.1 <- matchit(as.formula(paste(result$spec[2], '~', result$spec[3] , sep = ' ')),
data = D,
method = "nearest",
exact = c("infQ"),
distance = "glm", link = "probit")
#plot(summary(m.1))
m.data1 <- match.data(m.1)
match.matrix <- data.frame("untreated" = m.1$match.matrix[,1] ,
"treated" = rownames(m.1$match.matrix))
m.data1[as.character(match.matrix[, 'untreated']), 'entrya'] <- m.data1[as.character(match.matrix[, 'treated']),'entrya']
m.data1$diff_entry <- ceiling(as.integer(as.Date(m.data1$entrya) - as.Date(m.data1$entry))/30.417)
assign(paste("Mdata",s, sep=""), m.data1)
Mdata <- bind_rows(Mdata, m.data1)
assign(paste0('balancegraph',s, by=''),summary(m.1, subclass = TRUE))
#distance in m.data1 is Propensity score
#trim = 0.005
#m.data1 <- m.data1[!(m.data1$distance <= trim | m.data1$distance >= (1-trim)),]
for (iQ in O_vars){
fit <- lm(as.formula(paste(iQ , '~', result$spec[2], '+' , result$spec[3], by = ' ')),
data = m.data1,
weights = weights)
res <- coeftest(fit, vcov. = vcovCL, cluster = ~subclass)
att <- res[2,1]
se <- res[2,2]
resultsArray_ATT[iQ,s] <- att
resultsArray_se[iQ,s] <- se
}
}
}
for (iQ in 1:length(O_vars)){
results[iQ,1] <- sum((resultsArray_ATT[iQ,]*(N_sp/N)))
results[iQ,2] <- sum((resultsArray_se[iQ,]*(N_sp/N)))
#results[iQ,2] <- sum((resultsArray_se[iQ,]^2*(N_sp/N)))
}
# LL: sanity check
#plot(resultsArray_ATT[1:17,1])
#lines(resultsArray_ATT[1:17,2])
#lines(resultsArray_ATT[1:17,3])
#lines(resultsArray_ATT[1:17,4])
results<-cbind(O_vars, results)
#Mdata<-rbind(Mdata1, Mdata2, Mdata3, Mdata4)
resultsPSM <- matrix(NA, nrow=length(O_vars), ncol = 2)
for (iQ in 1:length(O_vars)){
fit <- lm(as.formula(paste(O_vars[iQ] , '~', result$spec[2], '+' , result$spec[3], by = ' ')),
data = Mdata,
weights = weights)
res <- coeftest(fit, vcov. = vcovCL, cluster = ~subclass)
#LL: source of clustering?
att <- res[2,1]
se <- res[2,2]
resultsPSM[iQ,1] <- att
resultsPSM[iQ,2] <- se
}
resultsPSM<-cbind(O_vars, resultsPSM)
#LL: why do results and results PSM give different values?
# I see, it is the standard errors. They are effectively cut in half
# that is in line with square-root convergence, because the sample size is quadrupled.Graph 4: Balance of the groups of participants and eligible before and after weighting
match.vars <- c('distance',list_vars,paste0("empl.", seq(1,4,1), sep=""),'infQ')
balance_g <- array(NA, dim=c(length(match.vars),2,length(Ssamples)))
dimnames(balance_g)[[1]] <-match.vars
dimnames(balance_g)[[2]] <- c('Balance_for_All_Data','Balance_for_Matched_Data')
for(i in 1:length(Ssamples)){
if(exists(paste0('balancegraph', i, by = ''))){
x <- get(paste0('balancegraph', i, by = ''))
balance_g[,1,i] <- abs(x$sum.all[,3][match(rownames(balance_g), names(x$sum.all[,3]))])
balance_g[,2,i] <- abs(x$sum.matched[,3][match(rownames(balance_g), names(x$sum.matched[,3]))])
}
}
balance_f <- array(NA, dim=c(length(match.vars),2))
dimnames(balance_f)[[1]] <-match.vars
dimnames(balance_f)[[2]] <- c('Balance_for_All_Data','Balance_for_Matched_Data')
for (iQ in 1:length(match.vars)){
balance_f[iQ,1] <- sum(sum((as.numeric(balance_g[iQ,1,])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
balance_f[iQ,2] <-sum(sum((as.numeric(balance_g[iQ,2,])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
}
balance_fg <- data.frame(balance = c(balance_f[,1], balance_f[,2]),
Balance = c(rep("before matching",length(match.vars)),rep("after matching",length(match.vars))),
names = c(match.vars,match.vars) )
p <- balance_fg %>%
mutate(names = fct_reorder(names, balance)) %>%
ggplot(aes(x=balance, y=names,col=Balance)) +
geom_vline(xintercept = 0.05, linetype="dotted", color = 'darkgrey') +
geom_vline(xintercept = 0.0, color = 'darkgrey')+
geom_vline(xintercept = 0.1, color = 'darkgrey')+
geom_point()+
theme_minimal()+
ylab('Variables')+
xlab('Absolute Standardized Meand Difference')+
theme(plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0), legend.position = "top")+
labs(caption="Source: ÚPSVaR")
p
After inspecting the achieved balance of the “control group” and participants, we can proceed with reporting the estimated effects of participation in the Commuting allowance during 2017.
3.1 Labour market outcomes of participants and eligible
First, we construct a proxy of the employment rate. It is a share of persons out of the register of unemployed JSs observed on the first day of quarters before and after participation (Quarter 0 was the quarter when participation started).
Graph 5: The share of individuals out of the unemployment register (proxy for employment rate)
graph <- matrix(NA, nrow=length(O_vars[1:17]), ncol = 2)
rownames(graph) <- O_vars[1:17]
for(o in O_vars[1:17]){
graph[o,1] <- apply(Mdata[Mdata$treated == TRUE,o,drop = FALSE], 2, mean, na.rm = TRUE)
graph[o,2] <- apply(Mdata[Mdata$treated == FALSE,o,drop = FALSE], 2, mean, na.rm = TRUE)
}
graph <- data.frame(cbind(O_vars[1:17],graph))
colnames(graph) <- c('O_vars','treated', 'untreated')
graph$treated <- as.numeric(as.character(graph$treated))
graph$untreated <- as.numeric(as.character(graph$untreated))
graph$O_vars <- factor(graph$O_vars, levels=c(O_vars[1:17]))
graph$Q<-seq(-4,12,1)
graphER<- ggplot(data=graph) +
geom_line(aes(x=Q, y=treated, colour="Treated"), size = 1 , group = 1) +
geom_line(aes(x=Q, y=untreated, colour="Control group"), size = 1 , group = 1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(-4,12,1))+
theme_minimal()+
labs(
y = "Share of treated",
x = "Quarters before and after the start of the participation (0)",
colour = "Group",
caption="Source: ÚPSVaR") +
theme(plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0), legend.position = "top")
graphER
Second, we look at the number of quarters until the first exit from the register of unemployed JSs. This indicates how participation in the ALMP programme contributed to the shortening of the participants’ unemployment spell. The graph displays the whole distribution of participants and the control group based on the values of this outcome indicator.
Graph 6: Quarters until the first exit
#### THE NUMBER OF MONTHS UNTIL THE FIRST EXIT
########## Months until the first exit
# how many months after the entrya JS got a job
firstempl_P <- data.frame('quarter' = Mdata[Mdata$treated==TRUE, 'firstempl']) %>%
group_by(quarter) %>%
summarise(total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(percent = round( total / sum(total), 4),
Group = "Participants")
firstempl_E <- data.frame('quarter' = Mdata[Mdata$treated==FALSE, 'firstempl']) %>%
group_by(quarter) %>%
summarise(total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(percent = round( total / sum(total), 4),
Group = "Eligible")
firstempl <- rbind(firstempl_P, firstempl_E)
ggplot(firstempl, aes(fill=Group, y=percent, x=quarter)) +
geom_bar(position="dodge", stat="identity") +
facet_wrap(~Group) +
theme_minimal() +
scale_fill_manual(values=c('grey', 'steelblue3')) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(0,16,1)) +
theme(legend.position="none") +
xlab("Quarters after the start of the participation (0)") +
ylab("") +
labs(caption="Source: COLSAF")+
scale_y_continuous(labels = percent)
The following graph displays the cumulative number of months spent out of the register during the observation period following the evaluation program’s end.
Graph 7: Number of quarters out of the unemployment register after the end of the participation
## Plotting the number of months in cumulative employment
###### Participants
empl36m_P <- data.frame('quarter' = Mdata[Mdata$treated==TRUE, 'cumempl']) %>%
group_by(quarter) %>%
summarise(total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(percent = round( total / sum(total), 4),
Group = "Participants")
empl36m_E <- data.frame('quarter' = Mdata[Mdata$treated==FALSE, 'cumempl']) %>%
group_by(quarter) %>%
summarise(total = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%
mutate(percent = round( total / sum(total), 4),
Group = "Eligible")
empl36m <- rbind(empl36m_P, empl36m_E)
ggplot(empl36m, aes(fill=Group, y=percent, x=quarter)) +
geom_bar(position="dodge", stat="identity") +
facet_wrap(~Group) +
theme_minimal() +
scale_fill_manual(values=c('grey', 'steelblue3')) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(0,16,1)) +
theme(legend.position="none") +
xlab("Quarters after the start of the participation (0)") +
ylab("") +
labs(caption="Source: COLSAF")+
scale_y_continuous(labels = percent)
3.2 Estimation of the average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs)
Now, we explore the average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs).
Graph 8: The average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs) estimated for the participation in the Commuting allowance during 2017
graphATT
3.3 Statistical significance and heterogeneity of ATT effects
Further, we report the ATTs on the quarterly proxy for employment status, complemented by the indicators of:
- Number of months until the first exit from the unemployment register JSs (firtempl)
- Cumulative number of months outside the unemployment register of unemployed JSs (cumempl)
Table 3: The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT)
resultsDF <- select(resultsDF, -pval)
colnames(resultsDF) <- c("", "effect", "se", "sig.")
resultsDF %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c') %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE) %>%
row_spec(1:nrow(resultsDF), font_size = '1cm') %>%
column_spec(1:ncol(resultsDF),width = "1.1cm") %>%
kableExtra::footnote(number = paste('Significance (sig.):', 0.0000, ' " *** " ', 0.001, ' " ** " ', 0.01, ' " * " ', 0.05, ' " . " ', 0.1, '" "', 1))| effect | se | sig. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | |
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . |
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** |
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** |
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** |
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** |
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** |
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** |
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** |
| 1 Significance (sig.): 0 " *** " 0.001 " ** " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 |
Additionally, we explore the heterogeneity in the effects programme participation has on various subgroups of participants.
We explore the ATTs for subgroups based on:
- Gender - differences in effects for women and men
- Education level - differences in effects for JSs with no education, primary education, lower and secondary education.
- Share of Roma in the city of residence - differences in effects for JSs who lives in the city with the share of Roma below 10% and above 10%
- The size of the city of residence - differences in effects for JSs who lives in the city with a population less than 4 000 and more than 4 000
Table 4: The average treatment effect on the treated: subgroup based difference between entry into unemployment register and started of participation in measure
diff_entry|
Timing of participation
|
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sample
|
0-6 months
|
7-12 months
|
13+ months
|
|||||||||
| effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | |
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | -0.018 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.015 | -0.021 | 0.007 | ** | |||
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . | 0.063 | 0.013 | *** | -0.037 | 0.020 | . | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-0.007 | 0.020 | -0.040 | 0.008 | *** | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** | 0.041 | 0.011 | *** | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 0.056 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** | 0.772 | 0.015 | *** | 0.909 | 0.012 | *** | 0.701 | 0.026 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** | 0.553 | 0.018 | *** | 0.744 | 0.019 | *** | 0.493 | 0.029 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** | 0.365 | 0.019 | *** | 0.481 | 0.021 | *** | 0.325 | 0.031 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** | 0.246 | 0.018 | *** | 0.326 | 0.021 | *** | 0.230 | 0.030 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** | 0.159 | 0.016 | *** | 0.236 | 0.020 | *** | 0.160 | 0.028 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** | 0.124 | 0.015 | *** | 0.161 | 0.019 | *** | 0.157 | 0.027 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** | 0.076 | 0.014 | *** | 0.139 | 0.017 | *** | 0.111 | 0.027 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** | 0.069 | 0.014 | *** | 0.118 | 0.017 | *** | 0.100 | 0.026 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 0.044 | 0.014 | ** | 0.074 | 0.017 | *** | 0.074 | 0.025 | ** |
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** | 0.069 | 0.015 | *** | 0.061 | 0.017 | *** | 0.037 | 0.026 | |
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** | 0.056 | 0.015 | *** | 0.066 | 0.018 | *** | 0.015 | 0.027 | |
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** | 0.058 | 0.017 | *** | 0.072 | 0.019 | *** | 0.021 | 0.028 | |
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | 0.073 | 0.017 | *** | 0.056 | 0.018 | ** | 0.026 | 0.028 | |
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** | -2.767 | 0.092 | *** | -3.749 | 0.120 | *** | -2.945 | 0.193 | *** |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** | 2.664 | 0.112 | *** | 3.444 | 0.139 | *** | 2.451 | 0.227 | *** |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " ** " 0.001 " * " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 | ||||||||||||
| 2 Sample: 3 668 observations 0-6 months: 1 582 observations 7-12 months: 1 380 observations 13+ months: 706 observations | ||||||||||||
Table 5: The average treatment effect on the treated: subgroup based on gender
gender|
Gender
|
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sample
|
Women
|
Men
|
|||||||
| effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | |
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | -0.009 | 0.010 | 0.004 | 0.019 | |||
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.023 | 0.020 | ||
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-0.006 | 0.012 | -0.047 | 0.018 | ** | |
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** | 0.044 | 0.008 | *** | 0.058 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** | 0.808 | 0.011 | *** | 0.802 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** | 0.622 | 0.015 | *** | 0.576 | 0.023 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** | 0.421 | 0.015 | *** | 0.359 | 0.023 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** | 0.293 | 0.015 | *** | 0.228 | 0.023 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** | 0.216 | 0.014 | *** | 0.126 | 0.020 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** | 0.157 | 0.013 | *** | 0.117 | 0.020 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** | 0.121 | 0.013 | *** | 0.077 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** | 0.102 | 0.012 | *** | 0.075 | 0.018 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 0.074 | 0.012 | *** | 0.035 | 0.018 | . |
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** | 0.081 | 0.012 | *** | 0.015 | 0.017 | |
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** | 0.068 | 0.013 | *** | 0.024 | 0.019 | |
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** | 0.054 | 0.013 | *** | 0.060 | 0.020 | ** |
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | 0.046 | 0.013 | *** | 0.083 | 0.019 | *** |
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** | -3.347 | 0.091 | *** | -2.781 | 0.108 | *** |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** | 3.064 | 0.102 | *** | 2.577 | 0.144 | *** |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " ** " 0.001 " * " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 | |||||||||
| 2 Sample: 3 668 observations Women: 2 443 observations Men: 1 225 observations | |||||||||
Table 6: The average treatment effect on the treated: subgroup based on education level
education|
Education
|
|||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sample
|
No education
|
Primary
|
Lower secondary
|
Upper secondary
|
|||||||||||
| effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | |
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | 14.905 | NaN | -0.099 | 0.050 |
|
0.007 | 0.023 | 0.001 | 0.016 | ||||
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . | 6.169 | NaN | 0.023 | 0.048 | 0.007 | 0.023 | 0.013 | 0.018 | ||||
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-4.914 | NaN | 0.034 | 0.043 | -0.021 | 0.022 | -0.014 | 0.018 | ||||
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** | -0.431 | NaN | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.054 | 0.011 | *** | 0.035 | 0.011 | *** | ||
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** | 1.000 | NaN | 0.825 | 0.034 | *** | 0.838 | 0.018 | *** | 0.793 | 0.016 | *** | |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** | -4.833 | NaN | 0.640 | 0.047 | *** | 0.642 | 0.024 | *** | 0.577 | 0.021 | *** | |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** | -2.082 | NaN | 0.418 | 0.053 | *** | 0.440 | 0.026 | *** | 0.352 | 0.021 | *** | |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** | 9.817 | NaN | 0.375 | 0.052 | *** | 0.297 | 0.024 | *** | 0.234 | 0.019 | *** | |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** | 4.823 | NaN | 0.315 | 0.047 | *** | 0.202 | 0.023 | *** | 0.150 | 0.017 | *** | |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** | 3.904 | NaN | 0.197 | 0.051 | *** | 0.169 | 0.022 | *** | 0.110 | 0.017 | *** | |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** | 3.904 | NaN | 0.160 | 0.052 | ** | 0.118 | 0.022 | *** | 0.071 | 0.015 | *** | |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** | 25.381 | NaN | 0.126 | 0.051 |
|
0.120 | 0.021 | *** | 0.041 | 0.013 | ** | |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 27.214 | NaN | 0.103 | 0.050 |
|
0.060 | 0.021 | ** | 0.013 | 0.014 | ||
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** | 1.732 | NaN | 0.095 | 0.049 | . | 0.039 | 0.023 | . | 0.036 | 0.016 |
|
|
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** | -1.429 | NaN | 0.080 | 0.051 | 0.001 | 0.024 | 0.043 | 0.015 | ** | |||
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** | -1.429 | NaN | 0.034 | 0.054 | 0.026 | 0.024 | 0.041 | 0.017 |
|
|||
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | -3.262 | NaN | 0.057 | 0.052 | 0.028 | 0.023 | 0.038 | 0.016 |
|
|||
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** | -80.511 | NaN | -4.243 | 0.348 | *** | -3.401 | 0.160 | *** | -2.673 | 0.089 | *** | |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** | 64.738 | NaN | 3.426 | 0.386 | *** | 2.979 | 0.178 | *** | 2.498 | 0.117 | *** | |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " ** " 0.001 " * " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 Sample: 3 668 observations No education: 16 observations Primary: 279 observations Lower secondary: 932 observations Upper secondary: 1 438 observations | |||||||||||||||
Table 7: The average treatment effect on the treated: subgroup based on share of Roma in the city of residence
romas|
Roma share
|
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sample
|
0-10%
|
10-100%
|
|||||||
| effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | |
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | 0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-0.074 | 0.024 | ** | |
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.025 | ||
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-0.021 | 0.012 | . | -0.002 | 0.022 | |
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** | 0.057 | 0.008 | *** | 0.023 | 0.011 |
|
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** | 0.801 | 0.010 | *** | 0.834 | 0.018 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** | 0.604 | 0.013 | *** | 0.618 | 0.027 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** | 0.385 | 0.014 | *** | 0.448 | 0.028 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** | 0.259 | 0.013 | *** | 0.319 | 0.027 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** | 0.172 | 0.013 | *** | 0.227 | 0.026 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** | 0.139 | 0.012 | *** | 0.158 | 0.024 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** | 0.101 | 0.011 | *** | 0.121 | 0.024 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** | 0.089 | 0.011 | *** | 0.104 | 0.024 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | 0.063 | 0.023 | ** |
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** | 0.060 | 0.011 | *** | 0.052 | 0.024 |
|
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** | 0.052 | 0.011 | *** | 0.045 | 0.025 | . |
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** | 0.052 | 0.012 | *** | 0.065 | 0.024 | ** |
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | 0.052 | 0.012 | *** | 0.070 | 0.026 | ** |
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** | -3.014 | 0.077 | *** | -3.570 | 0.168 | *** |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** | 2.823 | 0.090 | *** | 3.125 | 0.197 | *** |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " ** " 0.001 " * " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 | |||||||||
| 2 Sample: 3 668 observations 0-10%: 2 786 observations 10-100%: 882 observations | |||||||||
Table 8: The average treatment effect on the treated: subgroup based on the size of the city of residence
City|
Type of city
|
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sample
|
Village
|
City
|
|||||||
| effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | effect | se | sig. | |
| empl.4 | -0.002 | 0.007 | -0.026 | 0.012 |
|
0.032 | 0.016 |
|
|
| empl.3 | 0.015 | 0.009 | . | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.015 | 0.018 | ||
| empl.2 | -0.019 | 0.009 |
|
-0.018 | 0.013 | -0.020 | 0.017 | ||
| empl.1 | 0.050 | 0.006 | *** | 0.041 | 0.008 | *** | 0.064 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl0 | 0.808 | 0.009 | *** | 0.805 | 0.012 | *** | 0.813 | 0.014 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.609 | 0.012 | *** | 0.598 | 0.015 | *** | 0.626 | 0.019 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.402 | 0.012 | *** | 0.403 | 0.016 | *** | 0.398 | 0.020 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.273 | 0.012 | *** | 0.280 | 0.016 | *** | 0.263 | 0.019 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.187 | 0.011 | *** | 0.193 | 0.015 | *** | 0.179 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.144 | 0.011 | *** | 0.144 | 0.014 | *** | 0.140 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.107 | 0.010 | *** | 0.109 | 0.013 | *** | 0.098 | 0.016 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.094 | 0.010 | *** | 0.092 | 0.013 | *** | 0.089 | 0.016 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.061 | 0.010 | *** | 0.067 | 0.012 | *** | 0.048 | 0.016 | ** |
| empl9 | 0.059 | 0.010 | *** | 0.062 | 0.013 | *** | 0.054 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl10 | 0.053 | 0.011 | *** | 0.047 | 0.014 | *** | 0.058 | 0.017 | *** |
| empl11 | 0.056 | 0.011 | *** | 0.046 | 0.014 | *** | 0.067 | 0.018 | *** |
| empl12 | 0.057 | 0.011 | *** | 0.054 | 0.014 | *** | 0.061 | 0.018 | *** |
| firstempl | -3.163 | 0.067 | *** | -3.196 | 0.088 | *** | -3.069 | 0.102 | *** |
| cumempl | 2.910 | 0.081 | *** | 2.901 | 0.108 | *** | 2.893 | 0.128 | *** |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " ** " 0.001 " * " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 | |||||||||
| 2 Sample: 3 668 observations Village: 2 214 observations City: 1 454 observations | |||||||||
4. Technical appendix
The technical appendix provides additional details on the data processing procedures, complemented by results obtained by an alternative estimation strategy based on inverse probability weighting.
4.1 Sample Selection
This section displays additional detail about the selection and cleaning of the evaluation sample.
info_table <- data.frame(matrix(ncol=2,nrow=0, dimnames=list(NULL, c("Desciption", "Value"))))
info_table[1,] <- c('Start of the evaluation period', paste(ep_start))
info_table[2,] <- c('End of the evaluation period', paste(ep_end))
info_table <-
info_table[,-3] %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE) %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE)
sample_selection <- data.frame(matrix(ncol=3,nrow=0, dimnames=list(NULL, c("Desciption", "Dropped","Total"))))
sample_selection[1,] <- c('Total registrations ', 0,format(n1, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[2,] <- c('Total eligible jobseekers', 0,format(n2, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[3,] <- c('Total participations in the evaluated measure', 0,format(npart1, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[4,] <- c('Total participants in the evaluated measure', 0 ,format(npart0, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
x<-n1-n4
y<-npart1-n3
sample_selection[5,] <- c('Dropped eligible JSs', format(n4, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE), format(x, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[6,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n3, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE), format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
x<-x-n6
y<-y-n5
sample_selection[7,] <- c('Dropped eligible JSs', format(n6, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(x, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[8,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n5, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
y<-y-n7
sample_selection[9,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n7, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
x<-x-n9
y<-y-n8
sample_selection[10,] <- c('Dropped eligible JSs', format(n9, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(x, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[11,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n8, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
y<-nrowdfa-n10
sample_selection[12,] <- c('Inflating participants by merging dataframes', 0,format(nrowdfa, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[13,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n10, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
y<-y-n11
sample_selection[14,] <- c('Dropped participants', format(n11, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE),format(y, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[15,] <- c('Eligibles', format(x-(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==FALSE]))), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE), format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==FALSE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[16,] <- c('Participants', format(y-length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==TRUE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE), format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==TRUE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[17,] <- c('Eligibles', 0, format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==FALSE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection[18,] <- c('Participants', 0, format(length(unique(esample$klient_id[esample$treated==TRUE])), big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE))
sample_selection$Variable <- c('All registrations (before cleaning)', 'All registrations (before cleaning)', 'All registrations (before cleaning)','All registrations (before cleaning)',
'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation 2 years before the EP', 'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation 2 years before the EP',
'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in other ALMP during the EP', 'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in other ALMP during the EP',
'Dropped participants with multiple ALMP participations in evaluated programme',
'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in supported employment programs (ALMP) during the EP', 'Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in supported employment programs (ALMP) during the EP',
'Dropped participations which not happening during an unemployment spell','Dropped participations which not happening during an unemployment spell',
'Dropped participations with extreme values (1%) of the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure ',
'Dropped JSs with multiple registrations', 'Dropped JSs with multiple registrations',
'Total registrations after cleaning', 'Total registrations after cleaning'
)
sample_selection <-sample_selection[,-4] %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE) %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE)%>%
pack_rows(index = table(fct_inorder(sample_selection$Variable)))Table 9: Information table about the beginning and end of the evaluation period
info_table| Desciption | Value |
|---|---|
| Start of the evaluation period | 2017-01-01 |
| End of the evaluation period | 2017-12-31 |
Table 10: Data cleaning documentation
sample_selection| Desciption | Dropped | Total |
|---|---|---|
| All registrations (before cleaning) | ||
| Total registrations | 0 | 316 875 |
| Total eligible jobseekers | 0 | 300 626 |
| Total participations in the evaluated measure | 0 | 5 014 |
| Total participants in the evaluated measure | 0 | 4 966 |
| Dropped JSs with ALMP participation 2 years before the EP | ||
| Dropped eligible JSs | 47 278 | 269 597 |
| Dropped participants | 1 166 | 3 848 |
| Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in other ALMP during the EP | ||
| Dropped eligible JSs | 43 808 | 225 789 |
| Dropped participants | 1 404 | 2 444 |
| Dropped participants with multiple ALMP participations in evaluated programme | ||
| Dropped participants | 63 | 2 381 |
| Dropped JSs with ALMP participation in supported employment programs (ALMP) during the EP | ||
| Dropped eligible JSs | 25 970 | 199 819 |
| Dropped participants | 142 | 2 239 |
| Dropped participations which not happening during an unemployment spell | ||
| Inflating participants by merging dataframes | 0 | 2 349 |
| Dropped participants | 490 | 1 859 |
| Dropped participations with extreme values (1%) of the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure | ||
| Dropped participants | 19 | 1 840 |
| Dropped JSs with multiple registrations | ||
| Eligibles | 10 873 | 188 946 |
| Participants | 0 | 1 840 |
| Total registrations after cleaning | ||
| Eligibles | 0 | 188 946 |
| Participants | 0 | 1 840 |
4.2 Description of explanatory variables (used in balancing)
Description of variables, used in the estimation of ATTs. We also show their balance before and after matching in graph 4 and balance before and after weighting in graph 10.
Table 11: List and description of variables used in estimation
#TREBA DOPLNIŤ DO POSTUP_EXPORT
Q[["df"]][["flang"]] <- "knowledge of a foreign language (1: Yes, 0: No)"
Q[["df"]][["drive"]] <- "driving license holder (1: Yes, 0: No)"
Q[["df"]][["pc"]] <- "computer skills (1: Yes, 0: No)"
Q[["df"]][["unpast"]] <- "registered citizen in the past (1: Yes, 0: No), unemployed in past"
Q[["df"]][["min_urad"]] <- "traveling time to the nearest Labour office (in minutes)"
Q[["df"]][["min_BA"]] <- "traveling time to the Capital city - Bratislava (in minutes)"
Q[["df"]][["population"]] <- "number of inhabitants of the place of residence"
list_vars_table <- data.frame(Variables = list_vars)
desc <- c()
for (i in list_vars_table$Variables){
Q[["df"]][[i]][1]
desc <- append(desc, ifelse(is.null(Q[["df"]][[i]][1]), NA, Q[["df"]][[i]][1]))
}
list_vars_table$Description <- desc
list_vars_table[list_vars_table$Variables == "ent","Description"] <- "difference between entry into unemployment register and started of evalueted period"
list_vars_table[list_vars_table$Variables == "UR_region","Description"] <- "unemployment rate in region during valuated period"
list_vars_table[list_vars_table$Variables == "roma_share","Description"] <- "share of Roma in the place of residence"
list_vars_table[,-3] %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c', row.names = FALSE) %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE) | Variables | Description |
|---|---|
| ent | difference between entry into unemployment register and started of evalueted period |
| male | combination of klient_id and the date of entry is an Unique ID. (we created and used dup column to identify duplicates and remove them) |
| married | marital status: single |
| kids | nationality: other |
| slovak | marital status: other |
| noedu | kids under 10 years |
| primary | level of education: no education |
| lsec | level of education: primary |
| usec | level of education: ower secondary |
| flang | knowledge of a foreign language (1: Yes, 0: No) |
| drive | driving license holder (1: Yes, 0: No) |
| pc | computer skills (1: Yes, 0: No) |
| unpast | registered citizen in the past (1: Yes, 0: No), unemployed in past |
| min_urad | traveling time to the nearest Labour office (in minutes) |
| min_BA | traveling time to the Capital city - Bratislava (in minutes) |
| UR_region | unemployment rate in region during valuated period |
| roma_share | share of Roma in the place of residence |
| population | number of inhabitants of the place of residence |
| age | gender (1: man, 0: woman) |
4.3 Alternative estimation strategy (Inverse probability weighting)
In this section, we explore the sensitivity of our results to an alternative model specifications. The main results, reported above, were obtained by [propensity score matching] (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MatchIt/MatchIt.pdf). An alternative estimation strategy was applied using an [inverse probability weighting estimator] (https://www.rdocumentation.org/packages/causalweight/versions/1.0.2/topics/treatweight).
#Estimation parameters
Ssamples <- seq(1,4)
participation_month<-((year(as.Date(esample$entrya))-min(year(ep_start)))*12)+month(as.Date(esample$entrya)) # Month of participation since the start of the evaluation period
pcpQ<-ceiling(participation_month/3)
max_pcpQ<-max(pcpQ, na.rm = TRUE)
OQm <- seq(-12,36,3)
OQ <- -4:12
O_vars <- c(paste("empl",OQ, sep=""), "firstempl", "cumempl")
O_vars<-str_replace(O_vars, "-", ".")
list_vars <- c('ent', 'male', 'married','kids',
'slovak', 'noedu','primary', 'lsec', 'usec',
'flang', 'drive', 'pc',
'unpast', 'min_urad', 'min_BA',
'UR_region', 'roma_share', 'population', 'age')
# # All potentially useful explanatory variables (Xs)
# list_vars <- c('ent', 'male', 'single', 'married','kids',
# 'slovak', 'hungarian', 'roma',
# 'noedu','primary', 'lsec', 'usec', 'tertiary'
# , 'zaujem_vzdel',
# 'flang', 'drive', 'pc',
# 'healthy', 'barrier', 'graduate', 'ziad_undn_sp', 'cvyhl_poisteu',
# 'empl', 'unpast', 'employee', 'selfempl', 'zaujem_szco',
# 'look_ptime', 'commute', 'relocate', 'zaujem_zam_zahr',
# 'min_kraj', 'min_urad', 'min_BA',
# 'UR_region', 'roma_share', 'population',
# ageg_dummies,
# # paste0("urad_",seq(from=1, to=46), sep=""),
# paste0("isco1_",seq(from=1, to=3), sep=""),
# paste0("odbor1_",seq(from=1, to=5), sep=""))
# # paste0(colnames(df)[grepl("nace1_",colnames(df))], sep=""))
Balance_vars <- list_vars
# Result Matrixes
N<-nrow(esample[esample$treated==TRUE,])
N_sp <- matrix(NA, nrow=length(Ssamples))
resultsArray_ATT <- array(NA, dim=c(length(O_vars),7,length(Ssamples)))
dimnames(resultsArray_ATT)[[1]] <- c(O_vars)
dimnames(resultsArray_ATT)[[2]] <- c('ATT', 'se', 'pval', 'Y1', 'Y0', 'SampleSize', 'Sign.')
results <- array(NA, dim=c(length(O_vars),4))
balance_matrix_w <- array(NA, dim=c(length(list_vars),length(Ssamples))) # S x P x Q2
dimnames(balance_matrix_w)[[1]] <- c(list_vars)
results_bv_W <- array(NA, dim=c(1,length(list_vars)))
balance_matrix_un <- array(NA, dim=c(length(list_vars),length(Ssamples))) # S x P x Q2
dimnames(balance_matrix_un)[[1]] <- c(list_vars)
results_bv_un <- array(NA, dim=c(1,length(list_vars)))
### 1. Counting of ATTs
Sesample <- esample
###Four sub-samples based on the waiting time until participation in the evaluated measure (cutoffs p25, p50, p75):
wtc25<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.25)
wtc50<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.50)
wtc75<-quantile(as.numeric(Sesample$exita)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry),na.rm=TRUE, probs=0.75)
minToP<-min(as.numeric(Sesample$entrya)-as.numeric(Sesample$entry), na.rm = TRUE)
partic<-Sesample[Sesample$treated==TRUE,]
nonpart<-Sesample[Sesample$treated==FALSE,]
#NonPart majú iba spodné kritérium minimálnej dĺžky nezamestnanosti
esample1<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>minToP,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc25,])
esample2<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc25,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc25 &
as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc50,])
esample3<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc50,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc50 &
as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)<=wtc75,])
esample4<-rbind(nonpart[as.numeric(nonpart$exit)-as.numeric(nonpart$entry)>=wtc75,],
partic[as.numeric(partic$exita)-as.numeric(partic$entry)>wtc75,])
DataSample <- c()
for (s in Ssamples) {
esampleS <- get(paste0('esample', s, by = ''))
N_sp[s,] <- nrow(esampleS[esampleS$treated==TRUE,])
if (mean(esampleS$treated) > 0.0001){
esampleS <-esampleS[,c("treated", "klient_id",
"entry", "exit", "entrya",
list_vars)]
# Month of participation since the start of the evaluation period
esampleS$participation_month<-((year(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))-year(ep_start))*12)+
month(as.Date(esampleS$entrya))
# Participation quarter
esampleS$pcpQ<-ceiling(esampleS$participation_month/3)
# Month of the start of the unemployment since the start of the evaluation period
esampleS$Ustart_month<-((year(as.Date(esampleS$entry))-min(year(ep_start)))*12)+
month(as.Date(esampleS$entry))
# Inflow quarter
esampleS$infQ<-ceiling(esampleS$Ustart_month/3)
#Adding unemployment history
esampleS<-merge(esampleS,
h_esample[,c("klient_id", "entry",
paste0("entry", seq(1:11), sep=""),
paste0("exit", seq(1:11), sep=""))],
by=c("klient_id", "entry"), all.y = FALSE)
#Imputing the start of the unemployment spell
Pmatrix <- matrix(NA, nrow = nrow(esampleS[esampleS$treated==FALSE,]), ncol=max_pcpQ)
for (p in 1:max_pcpQ){
# Quarter of inflow to unemployment of participants entering the programme in quarter P
PinfQ<-unique(esampleS$infQ
[esampleS$treated==TRUE & esampleS$pcpQ==p])
# Only allowing non-participants inflowing to unemployment during the quarters when participants in this sub-sample were inflowing
#D<-esampleS[as.logical(esampleS$treated==T & esampleS$pcpQ == p) |
# as.logical(esampleS$treated==F & esampleS$infQ %in% PinfQ),]
Pmatrix[,p]<-as.numeric(esampleS$infQ[esampleS$treated==FALSE] %in% PinfQ)
}
hh <- function(j){
sample(which(j==1),1)
}
esampleS$pcpQ[as.logical(apply(Pmatrix, 1, FUN=sum)==0) & esampleS$treated == FALSE] <- 0
Pmatrix<-Pmatrix[as.logical(apply(Pmatrix, 1, FUN=sum)>0),]
esampleS$pcpQ[as.logical(apply(Pmatrix, 1, FUN=sum)>0) & esampleS$treated == FALSE] <- apply(Pmatrix,1,hh)
for (q in OQm) {
cond <- FALSE
for (n in 1:11) {
entry_n <- esampleS[ ,paste0('entry', n, '')]
exit_n <- esampleS[, paste0('exit', n, '')]
cond <- cond | isInRegister(p = esampleS$pcpQ, q, entry_n, exit_n)
}
esampleS[ ,paste0('empl',ceiling(q/3), '')] <- ifelse(cond, 0,1)
}
for(q in OQm){
esampleS <- esampleS[!is.na(esampleS[ ,paste0('empl',ceiling(q/3), '')]),]
}
#Pre-estimation data preparation
#Additional outcome variables
esampleS[ ,"cumempl"] <- rowSums(esampleS[, paste0("empl", seq(0,12,1), sep="")])
esampleS[ ,"firstempl"] <- ceiling(as.numeric((as.Date(esampleS$exit)-
(as.Date(ep_start) + months(esampleS$pcpQ*3)))/90))
# Cleaning the Xs
y <- data.frame(treated = esampleS[ ,'treated'])
D <- data.frame(esampleS) #D - su tvoje data ako data.frame()
spec <- as.formula(cbind(y,D[,c(list_vars,
paste0("empl.", seq(1,4,1), sep=""))]))
#je tvoja specifikacia modelu, je to object as.formula()
colTh <- 0.8
#Treshold for the acceptable correlation between vars ( je maximalne tolerovana korelacia medzi dvoma premennymi)
dumTh <- 0.0001
#Treshold for the acceptable concentration of dummy variables (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
TdumTh <- 0.005
#Treshold for the acceptable concentration of dummy variables in the sub-group of participants (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
TdumThN <- 5
#Treshold for the minimal number of observations of a dummy variables in the sub-group of participants (hovori kolko (100[%] x dumTh) percent je minimalny vyskyt hodnot 1 alebo 0 pri dummy premennych. Ak je dumTh = 0.005, tak aspon pol-percent pozorovani musi mat 1 alebo 0.)
result <- DatPrep(D = D, spec = spec, colTh = colTh, dumTh = dumTh, TdumTh = TdumTh, TdumThN = TdumThN)
for (col in colnames(result$D)){
D <- D[!is.na(D[,col]),]
}
# ESTIMATION:
d = D$treated*1
x = as.matrix(D[,c(list_vars, paste0("empl.", seq(1,4,1), sep=""))])
y_mat <- D[,c(paste0("empl.", seq(1,4,1), sep=""),
paste0("empl", seq(0,12,1), sep=""),
'firstempl', 'cumempl')]
att <- treatweight_pmp(y = y_mat, d, x, s = NULL, z = NULL, selpop = FALSE, trim = 0.05, ATET = TRUE, logit = TRUE, boot = 10)
#att <- treatselDML(y = y_mat, d, x, s = d, z=x, selected=1)
resultsArray_ATT[,1,s] <- round(att$effect,3)
resultsArray_ATT[,2,s] <- round(att$se,3)
resultsArray_ATT[,3,s] <- round(att$pval,3)
resultsArray_ATT[,4,s] <- round(att$y1,3)
resultsArray_ATT[,5,s] <- round(att$y0,3)
resultsArray_ATT[,6,s] <- format(length(d)-att$ntrimmed, big.mark=" ", scientific=FALSE)
resultsArray_ATT[,7,s] <- stars.pval(att$pval)
DataSample <- bind_rows(DataSample, D)
#Balance
#Generating the propensity score variable
PSmodel<-glm(result$spec, family=binomial(link = "logit"), data=D)
#print(summary(PSmodel))
D$PSvar<-as.numeric(PSmodel$fitted.values)
#LL: old weights INCORRECT
#w_ATE <- D$treated/D$PSvar + (1-D$treated)/(1-D$PSvar)
#LL: new weights CORRECT
w_ATE <- D$treated + (1-D$treated)*D$PSvar/(1-D$PSvar)
#Balance_vars <- colnames(result$D)[colnames(result$D) %in% list_vars]
for (bv in Balance_vars){
if (apply(D[,bv,drop = FALSE] ,2,function(x) { all(x %in% c(0:1)) }) ) {
#unweighted discrete
p_treat <- apply(D[D$treated==1,bv,drop = FALSE],2,mean)
p_contr <- apply(D[D$treated==0,bv,drop = FALSE],2,mean)
balance_matrix_un[bv,s] <- abs( 100*(p_treat - p_contr )/sqrt( (p_treat*(1-p_treat) + p_contr*(1-p_contr))/2 ) )
#weighted discrete
p_treat <- t(w_ATE[D$treated==1]) %*% D[D$treated==1,bv] / sum(w_ATE[D$treated==1], na.rm = TRUE)
p_contr <- t(w_ATE[D$treated==0]) %*% D[D$treated==0,bv] / sum(w_ATE[D$treated==0], na.rm = TRUE)
balance_matrix_w[bv,s] <- abs( 100*(p_treat - p_contr )/sqrt( (p_treat*(1-p_treat) + p_contr*(1-p_contr))/2 ) )
} else {
#unweighted continuous
balance_matrix_un[bv,s] <- abs( 100*(apply(D[D$treated==1,bv,drop = FALSE],2,mean) - apply(D[D$treated==0,bv,drop = FALSE],2,mean))/
sqrt( (apply(D[D$treated==1,bv,drop = FALSE],2,sd)^2 + apply(D[D$treated==0,bv,drop = FALSE],2,sd)^2)/2 ) )
#weighted continuous
p_treat <- t(w_ATE[D$treated==1]) %*% D[D$treated==1,bv] / sum(w_ATE[D$treated==1], na.rm = TRUE)
p_contr <- t(w_ATE[D$treated==0]) %*% D[D$treated==0,bv] / sum(w_ATE[D$treated==0], na.rm = TRUE)
p_treat_var <- ( sum(w_ATE[D$treated==1]) / (sum(w_ATE[D$treated==1])^2 - sum(w_ATE[D$treated==1]^2)) )*
t(w_ATE[D$treated==1]) %*% ((D[D$treated==1,bv] - c(p_treat))^2)
p_contr_var <- ( sum(w_ATE[D$treated==0]) / (sum(w_ATE[D$treated==0])^2 - sum(w_ATE[D$treated==0]^2)) ) *
t(w_ATE[D$treated==0]) %*% ((D[D$treated==0,bv] - c(p_contr))^2)
balance_matrix_w[bv,s] <- abs(100* (p_treat - p_contr ) /
sqrt( (p_treat_var + p_contr_var )/2 ) )
}
}
}
}
for (iQ in 1:length(O_vars)){
results[iQ,1] <- sum(sum((as.numeric(resultsArray_ATT[iQ,'ATT',])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
results[iQ,2] <-sum(sum((as.numeric(resultsArray_ATT[iQ,'se',])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
results[iQ,3] <-sum(sum((as.numeric(resultsArray_ATT[iQ,'Y1',])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
results[iQ,4] <-sum(sum((as.numeric(resultsArray_ATT[iQ,'Y0',])*(N_sp/N)), na.rm = TRUE), na.rm = TRUE)
}
results<-cbind(O_vars, results)
colnames(results) <- c('O_vars', 'ATT', 'se','Y1', 'Y0')
results_bv <- array(NA, dim=c(length(list_vars),2))
dimnames(results_bv)[[1]] <- c(list_vars)
dimnames(results_bv)[[2]] <- c("unweighted", "weighted")
for (bVar in 1:length(list_vars)){
results_bv[bVar,1] <- abs(sum(sum((balance_matrix_w[bVar,]*(N_sp/N)), na.rm=TRUE), na.rm=TRUE))
results_bv[bVar,2] <- abs(sum(sum((balance_matrix_un[bVar,]*(N_sp/N)), na.rm=TRUE), na.rm=TRUE))
}We can explore the sensitivity of our results by displaying the average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs) computing by different approach by inverse probability weighting.
Graph 10: Balance of the groups of participants and eligible before and after weighting x
BVDF <- data.frame(balance_vars = c(rownames(results_bv),rownames(results_bv)),
balance = c(results_bv[,1], results_bv[,2]),
Balance = c(rep("before weighting",nrow(results_bv)),rep("after weighting",nrow(results_bv))))
BVDF %>% subset(!is.na(balance)) %>%
mutate(balance_vars = fct_reorder(balance_vars, balance)) %>%
ggplot(aes(x=balance, y=balance_vars,col=Balance)) +
geom_point() +
ylab('Variables')+
xlab('Absolute Standardized Meand Difference')+
theme_minimal()+
theme(plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0), legend.position = "top")+
labs(caption="Source: ÚPSVaR")+
geom_vline(xintercept = 0.0, color = 'darkgrey')
We show a proxy of the employment rate to see a share of persons out of the register of unemployed JSs observed at the first day of quarters before and after the start of participation (Quarter 0).
Graph 11: The share of individuals out of the unemployment register (proxy for employment rate)
graph <- matrix(NA, nrow=length(O_vars[1:17]), ncol = 2)
rownames(graph) <- O_vars[1:17]
for(o in O_vars[1:17]){
graph[o,1] <- apply(DataSample[DataSample$treated == TRUE,o,drop = FALSE], 2, mean, na.rm = TRUE)
graph[o,2] <- apply(DataSample[DataSample$treated == FALSE,o,drop = FALSE], 2, mean, na.rm = TRUE)
}
graph <- data.frame(cbind(O_vars[1:17],graph))
colnames(graph) <- c('O_vars','treated', 'untreated')
graph$treated <- as.numeric(as.character(graph$treated))
graph$untreated <- as.numeric(as.character(graph$untreated))
graph$O_vars <- factor(graph$O_vars, levels=c(O_vars[1:17]))
graph$Q<-seq(-4,12,1)
graphER<- ggplot(data=graph) +
geom_line(aes(x=Q, y=treated, colour="Treated"), size = 1 , group = 1) +
geom_line(aes(x=Q, y=untreated, colour="Control group"), size = 1 , group = 1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(-4,12,1))+
theme_minimal()+
labs(
y = "Share of treated",
x = "Quarters before and after the start of the participation (0)",
colour = "Group",
caption="Source: ÚPSVaR") +
theme(plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0), legend.position = "top")
graphER
Graph 12: The average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs) estimated for the participation in the Commuting allowance during 2017
graphATT
Finaly, we report the ATTs in table computing computing by different approach by inverse probability weighting.
Table 12: The average treatment effect on the treated
resultsDF %>% kbl(format = 'html', booktabs = TRUE , align = 'c') %>%
column_spec(1, border_right = TRUE) %>%
kable_classic('hover', full_width = FALSE) %>%
row_spec(1:nrow(resultsDF), font_size = '1cm') %>%
column_spec(1:ncol(resultsDF),width = "1.1cm") %>%
kableExtra::footnote(number = paste('Significance codes (sig.):', 0.0000, ' " *** " ', 0.001, ' " ** " ', 0.01, ' " * " ', 0.05, ' " . " ', 0.1, '" "', 1))| efekt | se | sig. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| empl.4 | -0.001 | 0.001 | |
| empl.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| empl.2 | -0.001 | 0.000 | *** |
| empl.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| empl0 | 0.760 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl1 | 0.598 | 0.014 | *** |
| empl2 | 0.446 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl3 | 0.349 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl4 | 0.264 | 0.014 | *** |
| empl5 | 0.201 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl6 | 0.159 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl7 | 0.128 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl8 | 0.094 | 0.013 | *** |
| empl9 | 0.077 | 0.014 | *** |
| empl10 | 0.062 | 0.015 | *** |
| empl11 | 0.065 | 0.012 | *** |
| empl12 | 0.070 | 0.012 | *** |
| firstempl | -3.690 | 0.082 | *** |
| cumempl | 3.272 | 0.109 | *** |
| 1 Significance codes (sig.): 0 " *** " 0.001 " ** " 0.01 " * " 0.05 " . " 0.1 " " 1 |
References
Daniel E. Ho, Kosuke Imai, Gary King, Elizabeth A. Stuart (2011). MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 42, No. 8, pp. 1-28. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v042.i08
Frölich, M., Huber, M. (2014): “Treatment Evaluation With Multiple Outcome Periods Under En- dogeneity and Attrition”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109, 1697-1711.
https://bookdown.org/yihui/rmarkdown-cookbook/parameterized-reports.html
LMP Qualitative data in MS Excel, downloaded from (accessed at 14th of April 2021) : https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1143&intPageId=3227&langId=en